110
FXUS66 KSGX 102127
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
127 PM PST TUE FEB 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN BELOW AVERAGE AND NEAR AVERAGE. INCREASED WINDS
AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, GUSTY WINDS, AND A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. A FEW LIGHT PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET BUT
THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL RATES MAINLY 0.20-0.40" PER HOUR, WITH A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOCAL RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 0.50" PER HOUR.
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
ORANGE COUNTY ARE MAINLY 0.30-0.75", LOCALLY OVER AN INCH FOR THE
EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND INLAND
EMPIRE, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE 0.25" OR LESS,
EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND NEAR THE LA COUNTY LINE
WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE LOCALLY CLOSER TO 0.50". THE RAIN
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN RAIN BAND, WITH THOSE HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS MOST LIKELY WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
DEVELOP. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN FRONT ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED MID-WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS DURING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 6500-7000 FT. LATEST FORECAST HAS 1-3" OF SNOW FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO EXCEED 3 INCHES OF SNOW,
BUT THOSE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ABOVE 7000 FEET.
ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK WEDNESDAY MORNING, DIMINISHING
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON THE
DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND BELOW PASSES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS PEAK
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY SO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST. WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER. A MORE ROBUST TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
WINDS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING. WET AND COOL WEATHER
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH HIGHER RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
102115Z....A MIX OF CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST TODAY. A LOW
BOTTOM LAYER 2500-4000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SCT-
BKN THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS 10-18K FT WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 1500-
2500 FT MSL AND MOVE TO COVER THE ENTIRE COASTAL BASIN OVERNIGHT. A
BAND OF -RA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION 08-18Z WED, FOLLOWED BY
MORE SCT/ISO -SHRA AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH WED
EVENING, WITH CIGS/VIS BRIEFLY LOWERED IN RA/SHRA AND AREAS OF
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH DESERT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
WINDS GUSTING 35-45 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 55 KTS ALONG WIND
PRONE MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND PASSES WILL PRODUCE MOD UP/DOWNDRAFTS IN
LEE OF RIDGES ALONG WITH PATCHY REDUCED VIS 3-5SM IN BLDU IN THE
DESERT.
MARINE
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS INCREASE,
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS. SEE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS. WINDS DIMINISH GRADUALLY OVER THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THAT, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
BEACHES
INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED SURF OF 4-6 FEET FOR
SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WEDNESDAY, WITH LOCALIZED SETS TO 7-8 FEET.
SURF PEAKS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
THURSDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE
MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 10 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT
TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 10 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CSP
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