680
FXUS66 KSGX 110455
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
855 PM PST TUE FEB 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN BELOW AVERAGE AND NEAR AVERAGE. INCREASED WINDS
AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, GUSTY WINDS, AND A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
UPDATE: WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS AND THROUGH CANYON PASS AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS, WHERE THERE ARE SOME
GUSTS CURRENTLY APPROACHING 70 MPH. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FURTHER INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MOUNTAIN WAVE
WHICH HAS BEEN INFLUENCING THESE WINDS FURTHER STRENGTHENS, AND FOR
THIS REASON, I HAVE MADE THE DECISION TO UPGRADE THE WIND ADVISORY
TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. THIS WILL STILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF WINDS
APPROACHING, OR OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHEASTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY BY LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY HOURS OF TOMORROW MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE TECATE DIVIDE.
EVERYTHING ELSE SEEMS TO REMAIN ON TRACK, AS FAR AS THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MAINLY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ORANGE COUNTY
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND THEN THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE DISPERSED AND SHOWERY AS IT MOVES INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY
RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING. THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING TO TAPER OFF
UNTIL COMPLETELY COMING TO AN END BY LATER IN THE EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SUBMITTED AT 127 PM:
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. A FEW LIGHT PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET BUT
THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL RATES MAINLY 0.20-0.40" PER HOUR, WITH A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOCAL RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 0.50" PER HOUR.
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
ORANGE COUNTY ARE MAINLY 0.30-0.75", LOCALLY OVER AN INCH FOR THE
EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND INLAND
EMPIRE, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE 0.25" OR LESS,
EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND NEAR THE LA COUNTY LINE
WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE LOCALLY CLOSER TO 0.50". THE RAIN
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN RAIN BAND, WITH THOSE HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS MOST LIKELY WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
DEVELOP. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN FRONT ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED MID-WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS DURING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 6500-7000 FT. LATEST FORECAST HAS 1-3" OF SNOW FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO EXCEED 3 INCHES OF SNOW,
BUT THOSE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ABOVE 7000 FEET.
ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK WEDNESDAY MORNING, DIMINISHING
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON THE
DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND BELOW PASSES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS PEAK
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY SO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST. WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER. A MORE ROBUST TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
WINDS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING. WET AND COOL WEATHER
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH HIGHER RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
110430Z....LOW CLOUDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE 3000 FT AND/OR SCATTERED OUT
FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL BASIN THIS EVENING WITH THE SHIELD OF HIGH
CLOUDS REMAINING OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BASED MOSTLY 2000-3000
FT MSL WILL RETURN TO MOST OF THE COASTAL BASIN AHEAD OF AND ALONG A
BAND OF -RA/RA LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN BAND WILL CROSS THE COASTAL
BASIN FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 09-18Z WED. EXPECTING A FEW HOURS OF
MVFR VIS AND CIGS POTENTIALLY BELOW 2000 FT MSL WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE RAIN BAND. EMBEDDED POCKETS OF +RA MAY ALLOW INTERMITTENT IFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE BASIN (I.E.
KSNA, KONT).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA WILL LINGER BEHIND THE MAIN BAND WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CIGS/VIS BRIEFLY LOWERED IN WITH ANY PASSING SHRA. COASTAL SLOPES OF
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED IN FG THROUGH 00-06Z THU.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH DESERT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
WINDS GUSTING 35-50 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 KTS ALONG WIND
PRONE MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND PASSES. MODERATE TO STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS
IN LEE OF RIDGES ALONG WITH PATCHY REDUCED VIS 3-5SM IN BLDU IN THE
DESERT.
MARINE
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS INCREASE, WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS. SEE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR MORE DETAILS. WINDS DIMINISH GRADUALLY OVER THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOLLOWING THAT, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
BEACHES
INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED SURF OF 4-6 FEET FOR
SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WEDNESDAY, WITH LOCALIZED SETS TO 7-8 FEET.
SURF PEAKS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
THURSDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 10 NM-
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
10 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
UPDATE...STEWEY
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...KW
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