263
FXUS66 KSGX 111153
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
353 AM PST WED FEB 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE STRONG SOUTH WINDS ALONG AND BELOW THE DESERT SLOPES OF
THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 55 TO 65 MPH. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THERE WILL
BE WARMING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MOSTLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. FOR ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES,
RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH NEAR THE COAST TO 1
TO 1.5 INCH ON THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY
GREATER AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH OVER SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
PEAK HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND 0.50 INCH EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS ORANGE, SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO, AND NORTHWESTERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTIES WILL DIMINISH TO 0.25 TO 0.33 INCH AFTER 7 AM, THEN
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE SHOWERS MOVE TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH.
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO 7000 TO 7500 FEET THIS MORNING, THEN
FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE 4 TO 8
INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS, MOSTLY
ABOVE 8000 FEET.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND BELOW THE DESERT
SLOPES OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH AND ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 TO 70 MPH ON
THE LOWER DESERT SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE VALLEYS, MOUNTAINS, AND
INLAND ORANGE COUNTY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR
THE LOWER DESERTS.
THERE WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE
ARE SMALLER CHANCES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION,
MOSTLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS, FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MOSTLY 0.10 INCH OR LESS. WITH THE WARMING,
FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE COAST AND
VALLEYS AND IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR THE LOWER DESERTS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING OF A FEW TO AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR INLAND AREAS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE 60S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR THE
VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY WITH THE LOWER DESERTS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON SATURDAY WITH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR INLAND AREAS, LOCALLY 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 60S FOR COASTAL AREAS, IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR THE
VALLEYS, AND IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
FALL TO 4500 TO 5000 FEET FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE GREATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA IS ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR HEAVIER PRECIPIATION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, BUT WITH LESS AGREEMENT ON WHICH DAYS MIGHT HAVE THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. FOR LYTLE CREEK, ON THE COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS (WEST OF THE CAJON PASS), NBM
DAILY CHANCES FOR 3 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL ARE GREATEST ON
MONDAY AT 30 PERCENT, FALLING TO 27 PERCENT ON TUESDAY, THEN 11
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AND 7 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR BIG BEAR,
NBM HAS A 78 PERCENT CHANCE OF 18 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. FOR
THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 TO 8000 FEET, THE
CHANCE FOR 3 FEET OR MORE OF SNOWFALL FOR EARLY MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY IS AROUND 70 PERCENT. FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS, NBM HAS AROUND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFALL.
AVIATION
111030Z....A BAND OF RA MOVING THROUGH VCNTY KSNA/KONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD AND THROUGH VCNTY KSAN 14-16Z. CIGS REDUCED TO 1500-2500
FEET MSL WITH VIS 1-5SM WITHIN THIS BAND. CONDITIONS WILL LIFT AND
IMPROVE AFTER 13Z VCNTY KSNA AND AFTER 17Z VCNTY KSAN. STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH DESERT THROUGH 20Z. WIND GUSTS 35-
50 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 KTS WILL PRODUCE MOD-STG
UP/DOWNDRAFTS IN LEE OF RIDGES ALONG WITH PATCHY REDUCED VIS 3-5SM
IN BLDU IN THE DESERT. MOUNTAINS MOSTLY OBSCURED THROUGH 17Z. ISO-
SCT -SHRA WILL CONTINUE AFTER 17Z MAINLY INLAND AND IN MOUNTAINS,
ESPECIALLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SOME SCATTER OUT EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 22Z. GRADUAL AND MORE FULL SCATTER OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AFTER 02Z OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT, PARTICULARLY AT THE SAN
DIEGO BAY ENTRANCE THIS MORNING THROUGH 8 AM TODAY. SEE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
WESTERLY THEREAFTER. NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
BEACHES
INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED SURF OF 3-6 FEET,
WITH LOCALIZED SETS TO 7-8 FEET, HIGHEST IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. SURF WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR APPLE AND
LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
TO 10 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
EXTENDING 10 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page