575
FXUS66 KSGX 111725
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 AM PST WED FEB 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THERE WILL BE STRONG SOUTH WINDS ALONG AND BELOW THE
DESERT SLOPES OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 55 TO 65 MPH. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THERE
WILL BE WARMING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MOSTLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
MORNING UPDATE
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING, AS SHOWERS PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHEST
RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO CO MTS WITH
HOURLY RATES NEAR 0.30"-0.40", OTHER AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
CLOSER TO 0.10"/HR. COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SBD CO MOUNTAINS HAVE
SEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN TOTAL, NEAR ONE HALF INCH
ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND OCEANSIDE. SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY AT
7,000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE DESERT SLOPES OF THE
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY SLOPES WITH GUSTS NEAR 30-45 MPH, THOUGH
REMOTE BURNS CANYON CONTINUES TO GUST 70-90 MPH THIS MORNING.
SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, NEAR SUNSET
ACROSS THE LA BASIN. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY,
THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATER ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH PASSES FROM THE NORTH. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT STARTING ON SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SO PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (353 AM WEDNESDAY)
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE VALLEYS, MOUNTAINS, AND
INLAND ORANGE COUNTY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR
THE LOWER DESERTS.
THERE WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE
ARE SMALLER CHANCES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION,
MOSTLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS, FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MOSTLY 0.10 INCH OR LESS. WITH THE WARMING,
FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE COAST AND
VALLEYS AND IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR THE LOWER DESERTS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING OF A FEW TO AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR INLAND AREAS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE 60S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR THE
VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY WITH THE LOWER DESERTS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON SATURDAY WITH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR INLAND AREAS, LOCALLY 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 60S FOR COASTAL AREAS, IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR THE
VALLEYS, AND IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
FALL TO 4500 TO 5000 FEET FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE GREATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA IS ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR HEAVIER PRECIPIATION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, BUT WITH LESS AGREEMENT ON WHICH DAYS MIGHT HAVE THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. FOR LYTLE CREEK, ON THE COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS (WEST OF THE CAJON PASS), NBM
DAILY CHANCES FOR 3 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL ARE GREATEST ON
MONDAY AT 30 PERCENT, FALLING TO 27 PERCENT ON TUESDAY, THEN 11
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AND 7 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR BIG BEAR,
NBM HAS A 78 PERCENT CHANCE OF 18 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. FOR
THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 TO 8000 FEET, THE
CHANCE FOR 3 FEET OR MORE OF SNOWFALL FOR EARLY MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY IS AROUND 70 PERCENT. FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS, NBM HAS AROUND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFALL.
AVIATION
111030Z....A BAND OF RA MOVING THROUGH VCNTY KSNA/KONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD AND THROUGH VCNTY KSAN 14-16Z. CIGS REDUCED TO 1500-2500
FEET MSL WITH VIS 1-5SM WITHIN THIS BAND. CONDITIONS WILL LIFT AND
IMPROVE AFTER 13Z VCNTY KSNA AND AFTER 17Z VCNTY KSAN. STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH DESERT THROUGH 20Z. WIND GUSTS 35-
50 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 KTS WILL PRODUCE MOD-STG
UP/DOWNDRAFTS IN LEE OF RIDGES ALONG WITH PATCHY REDUCED VIS 3-5SM
IN BLDU IN THE DESERT. MOUNTAINS MOSTLY OBSCURED THROUGH 17Z. ISO-
SCT -SHRA WILL CONTINUE AFTER 17Z MAINLY INLAND AND IN MOUNTAINS,
ESPECIALLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SOME SCATTER OUT EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 22Z. GRADUAL AND MORE FULL SCATTER OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AFTER 02Z OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT, PARTICULARLY AT THE SAN
DIEGO BAY ENTRANCE THIS MORNING THROUGH 8 AM TODAY. SEE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
WESTERLY THEREAFTER. NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR APPLE AND
LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...NONE.
UPDATE...APR
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM
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