431
FXUS66 KSGX 120005
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
405 PM PST WED FEB 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOLER WEATHER WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER BY
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. A MORE ROBUST WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND WINDIER CONDITIONS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE..
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BECOME LIGHTER OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS WELL, WITH GUSTS ACROSS
MOUNTAIN DESERT SLOPES NEAR 25-40 MPH. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO DEPART THE REGION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE BRIGHTER
CONDITIONS ARE BEING SEEN CLOSER TO THE LA COUNTY LINE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAY AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
REGION BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
MOISTURE STARVED, SO RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW. IF ANY RAIN FALLS, IT
WOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OR THE LOWER DESERTS. THOUGH THE
TROUGHING PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER US, TEMPEATURES WILL SLIGHTLY
WARM WITH HIGHS NEAR AVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHS 50S/60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST LATER ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND WILL BE
REPLACED BY A WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING SUNNIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
DOWN THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. TIMING OF MODELS SHOWS SOME
SPREAD ON THE EXACT START TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. AS
OF NOW, LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE STORM WOULD START EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE LA BASIN AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. THE EXACT PATH OF SYSTEM WILL BE CRUCIAL TO EXACT
RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS, AND RIGHT NOW, THAT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN
AS MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW DIFFERENCES. NBM POINTS TO AROUND A 65%
CHANCE IN SEEING RAINFALL OVER 1" OVER POPULOUS AREAS OF ORANGE
COUNTY, WHERE THIS CHANCE GOES DOWN TO 15% FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.
CHANCES GO DOWN SLIGHTLY INTO WESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. A WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON MONDAY, WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
IVT VALUES FROM MODELS DEPCICTS VALUES NEAR 400-500 KG/M/S. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES. WHILE EXACT
SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CLOSER TO 6,000
FEET, BRINGING AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL TO AREAS LIKE BIG BEAR
LAKE.
THE TROUGHING AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO STICK AROUND BY
TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL DETAILS ARE NOT AS
DEFINIED, BUT A SERIES OF TROUGHS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TO
PROVIDE MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. NBM CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE MODERATE TO HIGH BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO FEATURE COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS UP TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND WINDIER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
AVIATION
120000...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO EXIT THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS. SCT-BKN LOW
CLOUDS BASED MOSTLY 2500-3500 FT MSL ALONG WITH ISOLATED -SHRA
CURRENTLY FROM THE COAST TO THE MTNS. LOW CLOUDS AND -SHRA WILL
DIMINISH BY 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION,
THEREAFTER. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20 KFT RETURN AFTER 12Z THU.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
ALONG THE DESERT SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR MOD UP/DOWNDRAFTS THROUGH 03-06Z.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
BEACHES
STRONG WESTERLY SWELL (260-280 DEGREES) WITH A 11-12 SECOND PERIOD
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED SURF OF 3-6 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
LOCALIZED SETS TO 7 FEET, HIGHEST IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SURF
WILL DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...KW
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