619
FXUS66 KSGX 120441
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
841 PM PST WED FEB 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A MORE ROBUST WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ENTER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
UPDATE: SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE AND COME TO AN END AT
THIS HOUR. THIS WILL LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT, WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN SOME OF THE INLAND
VALLEYS WHERE THERE IS SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND WHERE THERE IS ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE FOR TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER FROM WHERE THEY WERE
TODAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
ALOFT MOVES OVER AS THE DECAYING LOW NORTH OF THE REGION
PROPAGATES SOUTHWARD AND OVER SOCAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.
AS FAR AS THE REST OF THE FORECAST, IT STILL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE REGION, WITH THE MAIN BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING IN BY
NEXT MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FIRST INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH, THERE IS MORE DISPERSION BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS, ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SUBMITTED AT 122PM:
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BECOME LIGHTER OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS WELL, WITH GUSTS ACROSS
MOUNTAIN DESERT SLOPES NEAR 25-40 MPH. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO DEPART THE REGION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE BRIGHTER
CONDITIONS ARE BEING SEEN CLOSER TO THE LA COUNTY LINE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAY AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
REGION BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
MOISTURE STARVED, SO RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW. IF ANY RAIN FALLS, IT
WOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OR THE LOWER DESERTS. THOUGH THE
TROUGHING PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER US, TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY
WARM WITH HIGHS NEAR AVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
60S WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHS 50S/60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST LATER ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND WILL
BE REPLACED BY A WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING SUNNIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
DOWN THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. TIMING OF MODELS SHOWS SOME
SPREAD ON THE EXACT START TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. AS
OF NOW, LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE STORM WOULD START EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE LA BASIN AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. THE EXACT PATH OF SYSTEM WILL BE CRUCIAL TO EXACT
RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS, AND RIGHT NOW, THAT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN
AS MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW DIFFERENCES. NBM POINTS TO AROUND A 65%
CHANCE IN SEEING RAINFALL OVER 1" OVER POPULOUS AREAS OF ORANGE
COUNTY, WHERE THIS CHANCE GOES DOWN TO 15% FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.
CHANCES GO DOWN SLIGHTLY INTO WESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. A WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON MONDAY, WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
IVT VALUES FROM MODELS DEPICTS VALUES NEAR 400-500 KG/M/S. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES. WHILE EXACT
SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CLOSER TO 6,000
FEET, BRINGING AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL TO AREAS LIKE BIG BEAR
LAKE.
THE TROUGHING AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO STICK AROUND BY
TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL DETAILS ARE NOT AS
DEFINED, BUT A SERIES OF TROUGHS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TO
PROVIDE MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. NBM CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE MODERATE TO HIGH BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO FEATURE COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS
UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND WINDIER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
AVIATION
120400...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
MOSTLY DEPARTED THE REGION TO THE EAST. EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, PATCHY LOW CLOUDS BASED 2000-
3000 FT MSL WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE COASTAL BASIN. SCT-
BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20 KFT RETURN AFTER 12Z THU.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
BEACHES
STRONG WESTERLY SWELL (260-280 DEGREES) WITH A 11-12 SECOND PERIOD
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED SURF OF 3-6 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING, HIGHEST
IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SURF WILL DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
UPDATE...STEWEY
PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...KW
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