722
FXUS66 KSGX 130547
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
947 PM PST THU FEB 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AND WARMER THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES, GUSTY WINDS, AND
COOLER WEATHER RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000-6000 FEET LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY SNOW AND
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
EVENING UPDATE:
SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REVEALING THE JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE (10-20%) FOR SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW PASSING OVERHEAD.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO FALL LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE HAS HIGH CHANCES (60-90%) OF AT LEAST ONE INCH OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE COASTAL BASIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH MORE ALONG
THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. AS EXPLAINED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM, SO
STAY TUNED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BEGIN TO
UNRAVEL WHAT'S TO COME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SUBMITTED AT 124PM:
MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DOWN TO AROUND 800
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. A MUCH TIGHTER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF
CANADA STARTS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY, KICKING THE MORE BROAD TROUGH
EASTWARD OVER THE REGION, WHERE IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY BEFORE ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE
PREDICTS THE LOW TO CLOSE BRIEFLY AS IT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA, WHICH, COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE PAST DAY, COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS (20%
CHANCE) IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH, WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.
BY SUNDAY, A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE
BIGGEST WINTER WEATHER EVENT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. THE
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS FALL QUICKLY
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER DAY OVER DAY. INCREASING WIND GUSTS FOR NEARLY ALL
LOCATIONS, INCLUDING THE MARINE ZONES, PEAKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PREVALENT
THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES, WHICH MAY GUST ABOVE 60 MPH AT TIMES,
MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL ARRIVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS NEXT
TROUGH, ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN IVT. AT THIS POINT, GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT TIME FRAME, WITH THE GFS AROUND 6 HOURS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. MORE AGREEMENT IS FOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN
PREVIOUS EVENTS. SNOW LEVELS BEGIN MONDAY AROUND 6000-6500FT,
FALLING TO AROUND 5000-5500FT TUESDAY MORNING AND CLOSER TO 4000FT
BY WEDNESDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000FT WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
NEXT WEEK, REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION,
WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000FT LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. AT THIS TIME, SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000FT ARE LIKELY TO REACH A FOOT OR
MORE, WITH 10TH PERCENTILE (LOWEST REASONABLE AMOUNT) BEING 4 INCHES
AND THE 90TH PERCENTILE (HIGHEST REASONABLE AMOUNT) BEING 29 INCHES
FOR BIG BEAR WITH THE MEAN RIGHT AT 16 INCHES FOR TOTALS SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. FURTHER SOUTH IN RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS, THE
SPREAD FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE IDYLLWILD REGION RANGES FROM 2
INCHES (10TH) TO 20 INCHES (90TH) WITH MEAN BEING RIGHT AROUND 8
INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RANGE REMAINS QUITE LARGE NEXT WEEK
FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY GENERALLY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOW LEVELS AS WELL AS THE MAIN IVT TIMING,
ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SNOW LEVELS FALL REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING OF THE FIRST
ROUND. EITHER WAY, EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR MOUNTAIN
ROADWAYS FOR NEARLY ALL OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000FT. NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR SNOW, AND ENSURE THAT YOU
HAVE PROPER EQUIPMENT STORED IN YOUR HOMES AND CARS, AND AVOID
TRAVEL DURING THE WORST CONDITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL BASINS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SIMILAR TO ABOVE, THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
WITH HEAVIER BANDS POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH DURING THAT MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME, A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, PRIMARILY FOR THE
WESTERN AREAS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE ALSO QUITE SPREAD FOR NEXT WEEK
FOR THE SAME REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE, ALTHOUGH TOTALS THROUGH
THURSDAY COULD REACH A FEW INCHES. DEPENDING ON THE RAINFALL RATES
NEXT WEEK, LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY FOR
MORE FLOOD-PRONE SPOTS IN URBAN AREAS AND NEAR BURN SCARS. STAY
TUNED AS THE PICTURE FOR NEXT WEEK BECOMES CLEARER.
AVIATION... 121800
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST,
MAINLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY, AFTER 10Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INTERMITTENT WITH CIGS AROUND 1,500-3,000FT MSL. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AROUND 16-18Z. OTHERWISE, INTERMITTENT HIGH
CLOUDS AOA 20,000 FT.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY GENERATE HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...KW
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...STEWEY
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