848
FXUS66 KSGX 240424
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
824 PM PST MON FEB 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY
FRIDAY. HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY, THEN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR A RETURN OF COASTAL MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS LATER IN THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
EVENING UPDATE...
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST PAC. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER
THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY EVENING, DOWN TO -5.1 MB SAN-TPH AND -0.7
SAN-DAG. THE 00Z HREF HAS AROUND A 20-30% CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY
BY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT FOR THE MOST PART CHANCES OF ANY LOW
CLOUDS OVER LAND AREAS IS LESS THAN 10%. NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S IN THE COASTAL
AREAS, THE UPPER 80S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, THE UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH DESERTS AND THE MID 90S IN THE LOW DESERTS. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE AS MUCH AS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING
ONSHORE FOR WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A
30 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE FOR A RETURN OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS/FOG
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR COASTAL LOW CLOUDS/FOG
INCREASE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AFTER SATURDAY, NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SO CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST DETAILS IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TREND LOWER FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
AT THIS TIME, A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT TUE/WED AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND, BUT THIS
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
230400Z...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS AOA
25,000 FT MSL.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...SS/PG
AVIATION/MARINE...WESTERINK
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