588
FXUS66 KSGX 250434
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
834 PM PST TUE FEB 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH PATCHY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS.
COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
EVENING UPDATE...
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING ATOP THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TURNED BACK ONSHORE,
CURRENTLY AROUND 3.3 MB SAN-DAG. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE
UPPER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT DRIER AIR ONLY A FEW
MILES INLAND WILL PROBABLY DRAIN TOWARDS THE COAST AS THE LAND
BREEZE/DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z HREF HAS AROUND A
40-50% OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS WARM AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST, IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE
INLAND VALLEYS, THE 50S TO 60S IN THE MTNS, THE UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH DESERTS AND IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE LOW DESERTS. THESE TEMPS
ARE AS MUCH AS 13-17 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
VALLEYS, MTNS AND DESERTS. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN
THE VALLEYS, MTNS AND DESERTS. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOWER
SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS BUT WILL REMAIN 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AT THE SURFACE, ONSHORE FLOW PEAKS WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS MAINLY IN THE HIGH DESERTS AND THE MTNS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TURNING OFFSHORE BRIEFLY ON
FRIDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF COASTAL
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS/FOG FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING AND AGAIN FOR WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING. HIGH-RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY CLOUDS/FOG FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING AND A
40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/FOG WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING. ON FRIDAY, WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. AT THIS TIME, WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE THAT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE OVER OR CLOSE
TO SOCAL. IT WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL LOWER TO ABOUT 5-9 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS SYSTEM COULD ALSO BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION BUT AT THIS TIME THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY AS ONLY ABOUT
25 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
AVIATION
250400Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH CLOUDS AOA 10,000 FT MSL. LOW CONFIDENCE (20-
30% CHANCE) FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS OFF THE COAST.
EVEN IF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP, ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE FOR IT TO IMPACT
TAF SITES KSAN/KSNA AFTER 10Z TONIGHT WITH LESS THAN 1SM VIS. PATCHY
FOG SCATTER OUT 16-18Z. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR VERY PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AGAIN, AROUND 01-03Z THU.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE...WESTERINK
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