573
FXUS66 KSGX 260005
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
405 PM PST WED FEB 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT THE COAST TONIGHT. STRONG RIDGING IN
COMBINATION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY FOR SEVERAL INLAND VALLEY
LOCATIONS. ON SATURDAY, WINDS TURN BACK ONSHORE AND THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO WEAKEN AS A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
HIGH CLOUDS IN THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP DEPICT A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING
WELL TO THE NORTH WILL GO ALMOST UNNOTICED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH ACROSS THE
HIGH DESERT AND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALSO, INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW PRESENTS A 50-60% CHANCE FOR
LOW CLOUDS (AND FOG) TO FINALLY RETURN OVER COASTAL WATERS AND
COASTAL LAND AREAS TONIGHT.
THE MAIN STORY IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ITS AXIS
CENTERED RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. CONCURRENTLY, WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR 10 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AREA
WIDE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (LOCALLY 25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR INLAND VALLEYS AND COASTAL SLOPES). FRIDAY WILL BE THE
HOTTEST DAY WITH MULTIPLE RECORDS SET TO FALL ACROSS THE INLAND
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
FOR INLAND VALLEYS, 70S AND 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR THE LOW DESERTS. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND A
WEAKENING RIDGE SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES RELATIVE TO
FRIDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER BY SUNDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER LOW PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER, AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE VARIES SOME ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT
MOST SOLUTIONS REMAIN DRY AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH. CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE QUICKLY BY MID NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS THERE IS
SOME INDICATION OF WEAK TROUGHING WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE WEST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS AFFECTED REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
AVIATION
252345Z...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE REGION
WITH SKC-FEW250.
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FG TO LOWER VIS BELOW 1SM AT TIMES FOR COASTAL
SITES TONIGHT. FOR KSAN AND KCRQ, 20% AFTER 05Z, 30% FROM 09-16Z
THU. FOR KSNA, 20% AFTER 06Z, UP TO 45% FROM 11-15Z THU. BASES 200-
600FT MSL AND VIS DOWN TO 1/4SM IN FG. LOCALIZED AREAS OF VALLEY FG
FOR INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR ZERO VIS. CLEARING AFTER 16Z
BUT PATCHY STRATUS MAY LINGER AT THE BEACHES INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...KW
AVIATION/MARINE...WESTERINK
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