482
FXUS66 KSGX 161816
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1116 AM PDT MON MAR 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
HOT CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
WEEK. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS 25 TO 40 MPH ALONG AND BELOW THE COASTAL
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH THE COOLING HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE LARGELY ABSENT FROM THE
COAST THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
A PERSISTENT ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
BE AT ITS STRONGEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 500
MB HEIGHT RECORDS TO BE BROKEN FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. MOST DAYS
THIS WEEK HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS TO BE
BROKEN OR TIED, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MONTHLY TEMPERATURE RECORDS
TO BE BROKEN OR TIED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY, WEAK EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. PEAK GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND BELOW PASSES. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW, COMBINED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK ARE EXPECTED. REDUCE
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IF POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10 AM AND 5 PM, SEEK SHADE,
AND STAY HYDRATED. ON WEDNESDAY, A WEAK COASTAL EDDY COULD BRING A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING FOR INLAND COASTAL AREAS INTO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 5
DEGREES.
THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK FOR MOST INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. DAILY AND MONTHLY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BROKEN OR TIED FOR LOCATIONS LIKE RAMONA, BIG BEAR LAKE,
IDYLLWILD, PALM SPRINGS, AND BORREGO SPRINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO BE ELEVATED, WHICH WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
THE CURRENTLY FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR IDYLLWILD OF 64 FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE EARLIEST FOR SUCH A WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE AT IDYLLWILD BY ALMOST THREE MONTHS, THE CURRENT
EARLIEST DATE FOR SUCH A WARM LOW TEMPERATURE BEING JUNE 16TH (2021).
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
COOLING INLAND AS EARLY AS SATURDAY FOR PLACE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH COOLING SPREADING INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EVEN WITH THE
COOLING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK
STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL SEE AN
ABSENCE OF MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUDS AND FOG TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION... 161800Z...COASTS
LOW CLOUDS HAVE PULLED OUT OF KSNA
AND ARE STILL LINGERING AROUND 700 FT MSL ALONG OCS IMMEDIATE COAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANY LOW
CLOUD FORMATION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE EXTREMELY
ISOLATED.
VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST CONTINUE IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES, THROUGH
MOUNTAIN PASSES, AND LOCALLY INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH 02Z TUESDAY.
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEST WILL INCREASE AFTER 11Z-13Z TUESDAY
IN THOSE SAME AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
BEACHES
A LONG PERIOD (17-19 SECOND) SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL (190-200
DEGREES) BUILDS TO 3-5 FEET WITH SETS TO 6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY, THEN DECREASING WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT CONTAINS THE
DETAILS.
CLIMATE
HERE ARE A LIST OF LOCATIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BREAK/TIE
MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
WEDNESDAY:
HIGH RECORD YEAR AVG +/-
RAMONA 95 89 IN 1997 68 26 MONTHLY RECORD: 94
IDYLLWILD 85 75 IN 2004 60 25 MONTHLY RECORD: 82
PALOMAR MOUNTAIN 83 74 IN 2004 57 25 MONTHLY RECORD: 82
LAKE CUYAMACA 84 76 IN 2007 56 30 MONTHLY RECORD: 82
CAMPO 94 89 IN 2004 68 26 MONTHLY RECORD: 92
PALM SPRINGS 104 95 IN 1990 79 28 MONTHLY RECORD: 104
INDIO 104 99 IN 2007 81 26 MONTHLY RECORD: 104
THERMAL 105 97 IN 1997 82 27 MONTHLY RECORD: 103
BORREGO 102 97 IN 1972 80 24 MONTHLY RECORD: 101
THURSDAY:
FORECAST HIGH RECORD YEAR AVG +/-
RAMONA 96 92 IN 1997 68 28 MONTHLY RECORD: 94
BIG BEAR LAKE 80 70 IN 1997 52 28 MONTHLY RECORD: 80
IDYLLWILD 87 77 IN 1997 60 27 MONTHLY RECORD: 82
PALOMAR MOUNTAIN 85 76 IN 2007 57 28 MONTHLY RECORD: 82
LAKE CUYAMACA 86 79 IN 1956 56 30 MONTHLY RECORD: 82
CAMPO 95 87 IN 1997 69 26 MONTHLY RECORD: 92
PALM SPRINGS 109 97 IN 1997 80 29 MONTHLY RECORD: 104
INDIO 109 98 IN 1997 81 28 MONTHLY RECORD: 104
THERMAL 111 101 IN 1997 82 29 MONTHLY RECORD: 103
BORREGO 104 95 IN 2017 80 24 MONTHLY RECORD: 101
FRIDAY:
FORECAST HIGH RECORD YEAR AVG +/-
RAMONA 96 92 IN 1997 68 28 MONTHLY RECORD: 94
BIG BEAR LAKE 81 72 IN 2004 52 29 MONTHLY RECORD: 80
IDYLLWILD 87 79 IN 2004 60 27 MONTHLY RECORD: 82
PALOMAR MOUNTAIN 86 76 IN 1972 57 29 MONTHLY RECORD: 82
LAKE CUYAMACA 88 75 IN 2004 56 32 MONTHLY RECORD: 82
CAMPO 96 92 IN 1997 69 27 MONTHLY RECORD: 92
PALM SPRINGS 107 98 IN 2004 80 31 MONTHLY RECORD: 104
INDIO 107 100 IN 2004 81 31 MONTHLY RECORD: 104
THERMAL 108 101 IN 2004 82 32 MONTHLY RECORD: 103
BORREGO 106 97 IN 1997 80 26 MONTHLY RECORD: 101
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN GORGONIO
PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC/CLIMATE...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...VILLAFANE
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