035
FXUS66 KSGX 281900
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1200 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
COOLER, WINDIER, AND CLOUDIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE (15-20 PERCENT) OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SANTA ANA WINDS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
HEAT WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WITH WIDESPREAD
MINOR AND AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TOMORROW ARE FORECAST TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MULTIPLE
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN TODAY AND
TOMORROW AWAY FROM THE COAST. BY MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A COOLING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS.
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE US WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO COOL
CONDITIONS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE DESERTS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHEN CHANCES OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE THE
HIGHEST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN, WITH ALMOST ALL
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ACROSS GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING NO OR ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. CONSENSUS ON TIMING OF ANY RAINFALL HAS INCREASED,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY... EVEN IF THE
HIGHEST CHANCE IS ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS. FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS CHANCES OF RAIN ARE 15 PERCENT OR
LESS. THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH. IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS, COAST AND VALLEYS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE 0.10" OR LESS OF RAIN ACCUMULATE, WITH THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HAVING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 0.10". THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL, CONTINUED CLOUD COVERAGE, AND SOME
LINGERING BREEZY WINDS.
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS TO OUR EAST, THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL
MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW IT DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WOULD TURN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OFFSHORE, BRINGING CHANCES OF SANTA ANA WINDS AND ANOTHER UPTICK
IN TEMPERATURES. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS
GENERAL PATTERN, THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW
WILL DIG AND HOW FAST IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. BOTH OF
THOSE THINGS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF
ANY SANTA ANA WINDS THAT DEVELOP.
AVIATION
281710Z...INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS 400-800 FT MSL TO
COME BACK ALONG SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT, LESSER
CONFIDENCE IN ORANGE COUNTY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW TO MODERATE
WITH BEST CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 08-18Z SUN, THOUGH CLOUDS
MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL 10-12Z. VIS REDUCTIONS 2-5 SM, WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED IN FOG. LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING 16-18Z SUN.
OTHERWISE, INLAND AREAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CLOUDS AOA 20K
FT MSL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KTS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...APR
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