392
FXUS66 KSGX 082336
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
436 PM PDT WED APR 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES PEAK TODAY AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY. STARTING TOMORROW, A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN TWO ROUNDS, ONE ON SATURDAY AND ONE
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FROM NEXT TUESDAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..UPDATED AVIATION/MARINE DISCUSSIONS
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION, WE CAN EXPECT
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE
LOWER DESERTS. 70S AND 80S EXPECTED FOR INLAND VALLEYS, HIGH DESERT,
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BY THURSDAY, THE WEAK RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BY AN
INCOMING UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION STARTING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY DISRUPT MARINE
LAYER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. A COOLING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH HIGHS
DROPPING BY A FEW DEGREES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING ELEVATED
WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 35-45 MPH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD
OFF-AND-ON PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUED ELEVATED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FEATURE TWO
MAIN WAVES. THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE, QPF HAS
DECREASED WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE
COASTAL BASIN AND ALMOST NONE IN THE DESERTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, MODEST INSTABILITY MAY STILL PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOR THE COASTAL BASIN, WHICH WOULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES AND TOTALS.
THE SECOND WAVE WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
LINGERING INTO EARLY MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE THE STRONGER (AND COLDER) OF THE TWO, BUT
STILL EXPECTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL RATES AND
TOTALS. OVERALL, QPF FOR THE WEEKEND HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH
NBM PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 0.5" NOW AROUND 20-40% THROUGH THE
COASTAL BASIN AND 40-70% FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FALL FROM 7500 FEET TO 6500 FEET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A WEAK, TERTIARY SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW
FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, A
LARGE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS A RETURN OF DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
082340Z... COAST/VALLEYS...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 900-1400
FEET MSL WILL DEVELOP AFTER 05Z THU IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND AFTER
08Z THU IN ORANGE COUNTY. LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK TO THE COASTAL AREAS
WITH CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL COASTAL TAF SITES. CLOUDS SCATTERING 15-
17Z THU.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KT OVER THE
MTNS/DESERT FOOTHILLS INTO THE DESERTS OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM. WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 35-45 KT WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER 01Z FRI. MOD
UP/DOWNDRAFTS EXPECTED.
MARINE
THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS AND LOCALLY
CHOPPY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...KW
AVIATION/MARINE...CO
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