024
FXUS66 KSGX 120402
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
902 PM PDT SAT APR 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY,
BRINGING MODERATE RAINFALL, HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SHOWERS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PICK UP TONIGHT AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO FALL BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
TO AROUND 5C BY SUNDAY, USHERING IN SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID-60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, AND 30S-40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. AMPLE
MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH,
WITH RAIN RATES AROUND 0.2-0.4"/HR, LOCALLY HIGHER FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY FOR
ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES, MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE THREAT IS LOW, THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY,
PRIMARILY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP, BRIEF BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAIN RATES EXCEEDING
0.50"/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND, FROM AROUND 6500 FT TODAY CLOSER TO 5000-5500 FT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FT MAY SEE LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON SUNDAY. THE COLDEST POINT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
BE OCCURRING AS THE RAIN TAPPERS OFF, SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY BE 1" OR LESS FOR POPULOUS AREAS. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT BY EARLY MONDAY, ALTHOUGH A SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE DEEPER LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE,
ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND UP ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE QUICKLY
DRYING OUT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
ULTIMATELY, RAIN TOTALS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS EVENT, LIKELY AT OR
BELOW 0.50" FOR THE COASTAL BASIN AND INLAND AREAS, LESS THAN 0.25"
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST, AND AROUND 0.50-1.00" FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL PERFORM BETTER WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
ASSIST IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR SPOTS
OF HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS.
WINDS...
INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS THE LOW
APPROACHES, PROVIDING SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 35+ MPH AND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 55 MPH THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ON THE DESERT SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS. CLOSER TO MOUNTAIN PEAKS, EVEN STRONGER WINDS
MAY MAKE FOR DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR LOW-FLYING AIRCRAFT AND AN
INCREASE IN TURBULENCE. WHILE MODELS PROJECT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BEGIN AFTER 1 PM TODAY AND LAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT/2 AM SUNDAY, THE PUSH OF THIS COLD FRONT MAY MAINTAIN
STRONGER WIND GUSTS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DROP OFF BETWEEN 2 AM AND SUNRISE. ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS,
BLOWING DUST THROUGH THE HIGH DESERT AND COACHELLA VALLEY WILL BE
A THREAT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE WINDS SETTLE A BIT ON
TUESDAY.
BEYOND MONDAY...
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BY TUESDAY, WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW AND LIGHTER WINDS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD IN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR MID APRIL BY WEDNESDAY. A LATE WEEK PATTERN CHANGE COULD
POTENTIALLY BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE EQUAL
CHANCES FOR AN INSIDE SLIDER TO BRING ABOUT STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS.
CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING EACH DAY, BUT SHOULD THIS SYSTEM BE ABLE
TO SWING FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED, ANOTHER RAINY
WEEKEND MAY BE IN STORE. FOR NOW, PLAN ON DRY AND WARM WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 80S FOR MANY INLAND AREAS, AND GUSTIER OFFSHORE
WINDS.
AVIATION
120400Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...INCREASING CLOUDS BASED 3-6 KFT MSL TO
THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL BASIN. ISO -SHRA DEVELOP
AFTER 08Z BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. MOSTLY
VFR VIS/CIGS OVERNIGHT UNTIL MAIN FRONTAL BAND PUSHES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST, REACHING ORANGE COUNTY AROUND 16-18Z.
THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW HOURS OF SHRA/RA AND PERIODS
OF MVFR VIS/CIGS (1-3 KFT BASES, 4-6SM) WITH THE OCCASIONAL
+SHRA/+RA, YIELDING BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS. THE FRONT REACHES SD CO.
AROUND 19Z, SWEEPING THROUGH THE COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
YIELDING SIMILAR CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS SWITCH FROM
SW TO W.
FORECAST WINDOW FOR RA/+RA AND IFR CIGS/VIS:
KSNA...17-20Z SUN
KONT...17-21Z SUN
KSBD...17-22Z SUN
KCRQ...20-23Z SUN
KSAN...20-24Z SUN
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTS 35-50 KT TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD IN MOUNTAIN PASSES, ALONG DESERTS
SLOPES AND LOCALLY INTO THE DESERTS. LOCAL AREAS BLDU (VIS 3-5SM)
EXPECTED. MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS IN LEE OF MTNS. VIS DOWN TO 0-5SM
IN MTNS WITH FG WHERE CLOUDS AND TERRAIN MEET; SNSH TO REDUCE VIS
LOCALLY ABOVE 6500 FT MSL.
MARINE
THERE IS A SLIGHT (~10%) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT AND CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...ZUBER
AVIATION/MARINE...WESTERINK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page