280
FXUS66 KSGX 221028
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
328 AM PDT WED APR 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 45 MPH
TODAY AND 30 TO 40 MPH FOR THURSDAY. WINDS WILL THEN STRENGTHEN
AGAIN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH GUSTS ON SATURDAY TO 40 TO 50
MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND AVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, THEN COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR INLAND AREAS FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND, MAINLY
FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 45 MPH TODAY AND 30
TO 40 MPH FOR THURSDAY, THEN BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS, GENERALLY AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR INLAND
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE
COAST TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH THE
LOWER DESERTS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY WITH A
SUBTROPICAL FEED OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WITH NBM CHANCES GREATEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX HAS RAINFALL IN THE 60TH TO 70TH PERCENTILE FOR
SAN DIEGO COUNTY FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS MORE A REFLECTION OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MOVING INTO A CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIER TIME OF THE YEAR THAN OF ANY
PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BEING EXPECTED THOUGH NBM
THUNDER PROBABILITIES DO INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE CURRENTLY DRY FORECAST FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DOES NOT REFLECT
WHAT IS EXPECTED.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOT TOO
DIFFERENT IN THE STRENGTH FROM THE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS SINCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS.
AVIATION
220930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT TO LOCALLY BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE, MOSTLY IN VALLEYS THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE AROUND 2000-
5000 FEET MSL, WITH ISOLATED TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. ANY CIGS THAT
DEVELOP WILL NOT LAST LONG AND FULL SCATTER OUT SHOULD OCCUR BY 17Z.
LOW CLOUDS WILL STRUGGLE TO REFORM AFTER 03Z WITH ONLY PATCHY
COVERAGE AROUND 2500 FEET MSL MOST LIKELY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE,
STRONGEST GUSTS 25-35 KTS MAINLY OVER RIDGES AND ON DESERT SLOPES.
WINDS DECREASE THIS MORNING, BUT THEN INCREASE AFTER 22Z. GUSTS 25-
35 KTS, LOCALLY 40 KTS THROUGH PASSES AND ALONG DESERT SLOPES. LOCAL
UP/DOWNDRAFTS IN LEE OF MOUNTAINS AND PATCHY BLDU REDUCING VIS IN
THE DESERTS.
MARINE
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KTS IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, GENERATING CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
BORDER EXTENDING 10 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND.
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM
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