174
FXUS66 KSGX 250929
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
229 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND WINDY THIS WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN MINOR COOLING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER AND DRIER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...
IN THE SHORT TERM, THE FORECASTS REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE OF WESTERLY WINDS, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL-FACING SLOPES. THE MARINE LAYER IS
BECOMING MORE DISPERSED THIS MORNING, WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY AREAS OF
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. BY LATER IN
THE DAY, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF ONSHORE FLOW, AND DEVELOPING
SHOWERS OVER THE INNER WATERS OF THE SOCAL BIGHT, WHICH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE EVENING, AND ON
INTO TOMORROW. THE OVERALL LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING ABOUT
THE BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES FOR THE WESTERN-FACING
SLOPES WITHIN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. AS OF NOW, THE BEST RAINFALL RATES
OF POSSIBLY UP TO NEAR AN INCH WILL LOOK TO OCCUR AROUND THE PALOMAR
MOUNTAIN AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF A BIT GOING
INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FORCING OVERHEAD TO
RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME RATHER
STRONG AND GUSTY BY LATER IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WHERE GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DESERT SLOPES, AND
THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND CANYONS. THERE COULD ALSO BE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF UP TO 65 MPH. BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY WITHIN THE COACHELLA VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE FOR THIS WEEKEND, AND GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND
5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ON MONDAY, THERE MAY SILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK PERTURBATION THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING INTO
THE TROUGH COULD ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS, OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT. THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS
A CUT-OFF LOW BECOMING POSITIONED WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN, HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
BEGINS TO TRANSITION EASTERLY COULD ALLOW FOR THERE TO BE SOME
SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, DEVELOPING BY LATER IN
THE EVENING ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS A POSSIBLE TRACK WITH
ONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC MEMBERS HAS THIS U/L LOW PASSING JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, BY AROUND
NOON ON THURSDAY. THIS IS STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BEING THAT IT IS
QUITE A FEW DAYS OUT AND THAT IT IS A CUT-OFF LOW, WHICH IS A MORE
DIFFICULT TRACK TO PREDICT. BESIDES THIS, THERE WILL OVERALL BE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH RELATIVELY
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
250430Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS BASED 2000-2500 FT MSL
HAVE FILLED INTO SAN DIEGO/ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS, SLOWLY
FILLING INTO THE ENTIRE INLAND EMPIRE BY 12Z SAT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
IN THE MORNING 12-16Z, THEN CLOUD BASES RISE TO 3-5 KFT MSL AND
SCATTER OUT PARTIALLY WITH FEW-BKN CIGS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
INLAND EMPIRE. ISO -SHRA BEGINS TO REACH INTO COASTAL SD COUNTY
AFTER 22Z IN THE VCNTY KSAN/KCRQ, BECOMING SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE
COASTAL BASIN BY 02Z SUN. BASES WILL LOWER INTERMITTENTLY IN THE
VCNTY OF -SHRA, YIELDING TO PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE UNDER EACH -SHRA.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-35 KTS, LOCALLY TO 45
KTS ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.
GUSTS MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE LATE MORNING, THEN INTENSIFY AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON TO 30-40 KTS (LOCALLY UP TO 50 MPH). MODERATE
UP/DOWNDRAFTS EXPECTED IN LEE OF MTNS. AREAS BLDU (3-5SM) ALONG
DESERT SLOPES AND LOCALLY INTO DESERTS. AFTER 19Z SAT, GUSTS IN THE
DESERT VALLEYS COULD PERIODICALLY EXCEED 35 KTS, INCLUDING VCNTY
KPSP.
SHRA REACH MTNS AROUND 01Z SUN WITH INTERMITTENT SHSN ABOVE 6500-
7000 FT MSL. MTNS SHROUDED IN FG; VIS 0-5SM IN FG/SNSH.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH BRISK WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...STEWEY
AVIATION/MARINE...WESTERINK
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