806
FXUS66 KSGX 120028
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
528 PM PDT MON MAY 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
HEAT WILL PEAK TODAY WITH A COOLING TREND FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE PRESENT
EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS. A GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
HEAT PEAKS TODAY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS IN LOW DESERT ARE FORECAST TO REACH
105 TO 110 DEGREES WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100
DEGREES IN THE INLAND EMPIRE. PALOMAR MOUNTAIN AND BORREGO
SPRINGS ARE IN CONTENTION TO BREAK HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS TODAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL FALL 6 TO 12 DEGREES FROM
THEIR PEAK TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND PUSHES THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK TROUGHING PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE US WEST COAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS
AND TAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS KEEP THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ZONAL, WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
TO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
BY SUNDAY MOST ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS INDICATE THE RETURN OF WEAK
TROUGHING WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO COOL CONDITIONS A FEW DEGREES.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DETERMINISTIC NBM
WHICH CONTINUES TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE WARMER END OF MOST
OTHER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
AVIATION
120000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED AROUND 1000 FT MSL ARE
DEVELOPING WITHIN A MILE OR TWO FROM THE THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST.
CIGS MOVE INLAND THROUGH 08Z, LOWERING TO 700-1000 FT, REACHING UP
TO THE INLAND VALLEYS A FEW MILES EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR IN SD
COUNTY AND THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL PLAIN OF ORANGE COUNTY. VIS
REDUCED TO 0-3SM FOR INLAND VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG AND 3-6SM WITH
BR FOR ELEVATED COASTAL AREAS (200-600 FT MSL ELEVATION). THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT BASES WILL RISE ABOVE 1000 FT MSL AT SOME
POINT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, STARTING SOMETIME BETWEEN 09-14Z.
AROUND A 70% CHANCE CIGS REACH INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE, 11-16Z,
BRINGING PATCHY IFR CIGS/VIS. BASES CONTINUE TO LIFT (AND VIS
IMPROVES) THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO 1500-2500 FT MSL BUT ARE ONLY
LIKELY TO SCATTER OUT INLAND 18-21Z. WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE COAST,
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PATCHY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKC AND VFR THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY .
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COACHELLA
VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR
BANNING.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...WESTERINK
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