529
FXUS66 KSGX 151841
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1141 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
SLIGHT INLAND WARMING FOR TODAY, THEN COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND FOR
INLAND AREAS WITH STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN DURING THE WEEKEND WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL INLAND AND ONTO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL GUST TO 40 TO 50
MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 65 MPH. THE COAST AND VALLEYS WILL
WARM ON MONDAY WITH THE GREATER WARMING FOR INLAND AREAS FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY FOR INLAND AND DESERT
AREAS WHILE MOUNTAIN AND COASTAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE ITS MOVE BACK IN OVER THE
COAST AND INTO THE COASTAL BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO SETTLE IN
FOR THE EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN FOR SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING CHANCES FOR PATCHY
DRIZZLE FOR THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS
OVER THE AREA. EXPECT PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE DESERTS,
DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND MOUNTAIN PASSES WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-50
MPH, LOCALLY UP TO 65 MPH. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL
AREA WIDE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NEAR TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY, THEN AREA WIDE TUESDAY. DAILY HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK, PEAKING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE UP TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. THE HIGH DESERTS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
AVIATION
151800Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COMPLETE CLEARING AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL HAVE BASES
2000-3000 FT. LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH BACK INLAND AFTER 01Z SAT AND
FILL IN THE COASTAL BASIN. BASES WILL BE 1500-2500 FT MSL, WITH THE
MOST LIKELY PLACES FOR THE BASES TO FALL BELOW 2000 FT ARE AT KCRQ
AND NEAR MTN FOOTHILLS (70 PERCENT). CHANCES OF VISIBILITY FALLING
BELOW 3SM IS AROUND 70 PERCENT NEAR MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. PATCHY -DZ
POSSIBLE FROM 09-18Z. SLOW CLEARING EXPECTED SAT AM WITH SCT
CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AFTER 18Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...ELEVATED WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25-40 KT AFTER 21Z
TODAY WITH MOD UP/DOWNDRAFTS AND LOCAL LLWS IN LEE OF MOUNTAINS.
LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLDU AND REDUCED VIS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, SKC AND VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
MARINE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT WILL DEVELOP IN THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL
OCCUR NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. SEAS OF 8-11 FEET WITH A 9-12 SECOND
PERIOD WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
BEACHES
A WESTERLY SWELL FROM 290 DEGREES WITH A 9 TO 10 SECOND PERIOD WILL
BRING ELEVATED SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET, SETS TO 7 FEET FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHEST SURF AT WEST TO NORTHWEST
FACING BEACHES. THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED SURF AND HIGH TIDES OF
6.5 TO 7 FEET WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR
BEACH PARKING LOTS AND BOARDWALKS. SURF WILL START TO DECREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR APPLE
AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
10 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
PUBLIC...VILLAFANE
AVIATION/MARINE...CO
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