631
FXUS66 KSGX 162009
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
109 PM PDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOLER WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER, MORE
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING WELL INLAND AND ONTO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
WILL GUST TO 40 TO 50 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO
65 MPH. GRADUALLY WARMER, DRY WEATHER WITH GENERALLY WEAK WINDS
WILL FOLLOW MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT
COOLDOWN FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY 5/18
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS LEADING TO OUR
CURRENT COOL, BREEZY WEATHER. CURRENT WESTERLY GUSTS OVER THE
MOUNTAIN DESERT SLOPES INTO THE DESERTS ARE 30-50 MPH, WITH GUSTS
TO 65 MPH THROUGH THE BANNING/SAN GORGONIO PASSES. PEAK GUSTS TO
40-50 MPH WITH ISOLATED 65-70 MPH THROUGH PASSES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN TO SIMILAR LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY LOWERED VISIBILITY. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS ARE MORE MODERATE WITH PEAK GUSTS GENERALLY 15-25 MPH FOR
THE COASTS AND VALLEYS.
COOL AIR BROUGHT BY THE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH MORE PERSISTENT
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVER TODAY ARE CONTRIBUTING TO TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER END THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOUT
6 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE REGION. SUNDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW UP TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE. THIS WILL AMOUNT TO HIGH 60S TO LOW
70S FOR THE COASTS AND VALLEYS, HIGH 70S FOR THE HIGH DESERT, AND
80-92 DEGREES FOR THE SAN DIEGO DESERT AND COACHELLA VALLEY.
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST TODAY, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND MOVING TO COVER THE ENTIRE COASTAL
BASIN AGAIN OVERNIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY ALONG THE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND FOR SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. MORE CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY, BUT PATCHY CLOUD
COVER WILL LINGER, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST/WESTERN VALLEYS.
AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WINDS WILL TURN
OFFSHORE (NORTH TO NORTHEAST) IN THE DESERTS AS THEY GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY
REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS CONTINUE TO COOL A FEW
DEGREES.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY 5/19 THROUGH SATURDAY 5/23
WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN U.S., MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN GRADUAL WARMING MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, TO A FEW TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY WED/THU. WINDS
WILL RETURN TO AVERAGE NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND PERIODIC, WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE
DESERTS. THE RETURN OF DEEPER LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND THE RETURN
OF THE MORE TYPICAL "MAY GREY" CLOUDY WEATHER WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY
DRIZZLE.
AVIATION
161800Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ALONG
THE COAST THOUGH SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY LOOKS TO REMAIN UNDER LOW
CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. LOW CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BETWEEN 2000-4000FT MSL WITH A FEW CLOUDS MOVING IN AND OUT
AOA 1500FT MSL. LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 23Z
BEGINNING IN SD COUNTY, STRETCHING NORTH AND FILLING INLAND VALLEYS
AFTER 00Z. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH COASTAL OC AFTER 06-08Z.
MINOR VIS REDUCTIONS (3-5SM) EXPECTED FOR SOME ELEVATED INLAND
VALLEYS, WITH LOWER VIS WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTS HAVE ALREADY
REACHED 25-35 KNOTS IN DESERT SLOPES AND MOUNTAIN PASSES, LOCALLY UP
TO 50 KNOTS. MOD UP/DOWNDRAFTS AND LOCAL LLWS IN LEE OF MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS 35-45 KNOTS, LOCALLY TO 60 KTS IN WIND PRONE LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS IN LEE OF
MTNS WITH BLDU AND REDUCED VIS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, SKC AND VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT WILL DEVELOP IN THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR
NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. SEAS OF 7-10 FEET WITH A 9-12 SECOND
PERIOD WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
AND CONTAINS MORE INFORMATION.
BEACHES
A WESTERLY SWELL FROM 290 DEGREES WITH A 9 TO 10 SECOND PERIOD WILL
BRING ELEVATED SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET, SETS TO 7 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHEST SURF AT WEST TO NORTHWEST FACING
BEACHES. THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED SURF AND HIGH TIDES OF 6.5 TO 7
FEET WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR BEACH
PARKING LOTS AND BOARDWALKS. SURF WILL START TO DECREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT AND CONTAINS MORE
INFORMATION.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS
NEAR BANNING.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 10 TO 60 NM OUT
INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
PUBLIC...CSP
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...VILLAFANE
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