025
FXUS66 KSGX 170503
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1003 PM PDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOLER WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER, MORE
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING WELL INLAND AND ONTO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
WILL GUST TO 40 TO 50 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO
65 MPH. GRADUALLY WARMER, DRY WEATHER WITH GENERALLY WEAK WINDS
WILL FOLLOW MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT
COOLDOWN FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY 5/18
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS LEADING TO OUR
CURRENT COOL, BREEZY WEATHER. CURRENT WESTERLY GUSTS OVER THE
MOUNTAIN DESERT SLOPES INTO THE DESERTS ARE 30-50 MPH, WITH GUSTS
TO 65 MPH THROUGH THE BANNING/SAN GORGONIO PASSES. PEAK GUSTS TO
40-50 MPH WITH ISOLATED 65-70 MPH THROUGH PASSES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN TO SIMILAR LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY LOWERED VISIBILITY. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS ARE MORE MODERATE WITH PEAK GUSTS GENERALLY 15-25 MPH FOR
THE COASTS AND VALLEYS.
COOL AIR BROUGHT BY THE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH MORE PERSISTENT
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVER TODAY ARE CONTRIBUTING TO TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER END THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOUT
6 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE REGION. SUNDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW UP TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE. THIS WILL AMOUNT TO HIGH 60S TO LOW
70S FOR THE COASTS AND VALLEYS, HIGH 70S FOR THE HIGH DESERT, AND
80-92 DEGREES FOR THE SAN DIEGO DESERT AND COACHELLA VALLEY.
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST TODAY, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND MOVING TO COVER THE ENTIRE COASTAL
BASIN AGAIN OVERNIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY ALONG THE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND FOR SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. MORE CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY, BUT PATCHY CLOUD
COVER WILL LINGER, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST/WESTERN VALLEYS.
AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WINDS WILL TURN
OFFSHORE (NORTH TO NORTHEAST) IN THE DESERTS AS THEY GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY
REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS CONTINUE TO COOL A FEW
DEGREES.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY 5/19 THROUGH SATURDAY 5/23
WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN U.S., MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN GRADUAL WARMING MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, TO A FEW TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY WED/THU. WINDS
WILL RETURN TO AVERAGE NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND PERIODIC, WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE
DESERTS. THE RETURN OF DEEPER LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND THE RETURN
OF THE MORE TYPICAL "MAY GREY" CLOUDY WEATHER WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY
DRIZZLE.
AVIATION
170600Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 3000-4000FT
HAS BEEN RETREATING TO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND COASTAL SLOPES OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS, WITH THE LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 1800-2400FT
MSL ALSO BECOMING MORE SPARSE AND LIMITED TO INLAND VALLEYS. AS A
COASTAL EDDY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT, EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS NEAR 2500FT TO GRADUALLY FILL IN ALONG THE COASTS AGAIN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 08-12Z SUNDAY. LOCALIZED VIS REDUCTIONS TO 3-
5SM IN BR EXPECTED FOR SOME ELEVATED INLAND VALLEYS, WITH
OBSCURATIONS WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN. ELEVATED SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AS THE COASTAL EDDY STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS PICKING UP AFTER 16Z SUNDAY. MOST
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY 18Z WITH VFR PREVAILING
THEREAFTER.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF PERSISTING
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD 25-35 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE DESERTS,
LOCALLY UP TO 55-60 KNOTS IN VULNERABLE MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS THE
BANNING PASS. GUSTS GRADUALLY RELAXING BETWEEN 09-15Z SUNDAY, WITH
ELEVATED GUSTS 25-30 KTS LINGERING FOR MOUNTAIN PASSES. SIMILAR, BUT
SLIGHTLY STRONGER, GUSTS WILL PICK BACK UP AFTER 18Z. MOD
UP/DOWNDRAFTS AND LOCAL LLWS IN LEE OF MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
LOCALIZED VIS REDUCTIONS TO 4-6 SM IN BLDU EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY
DURING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTS.
MARINE
WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH ABOUT 5 AM SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS, SEAS OF 7-10 FEET WITH A 9-12 SECOND
PERIOD WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY AND CONTAINS MORE DETAILS.
BEACHES
A WESTERLY SWELL FROM 290 DEGREES WITH A 9 TO 10 SECOND PERIOD WILL
BRING ELEVATED SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET, SETS TO 7 FEET THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST SURF ON WEST TO NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES. THE
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED SURF AND HIGH TIDES OF 6.5 TO 7 FEET WILL
RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR BEACH PARKING LOTS
AND BOARDWALKS. SURF WILL START TO DECREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY
AND CONTAINS MORE DETAILS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 10 TO 60 NM OUT
INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
PUBLIC...CSP
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MUNYAN
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