853
FXUS66 KSGX 191109
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
409 AM PDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
REACHING INLAND TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES THROUGH SUNDAY.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK
POSSIBLE FOR THE DESERTS, AND MODERATE HEATRISK FOR INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY, THE INLAND VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOWER NEXT WEEK,
STAYING CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
INLAND VALLEYS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
THIS MORNING...THE MARINE LAYER IS ABOUT 3,000 FT DEEP AND AT THIS
HOUR LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES IN SOME
AREAS. PATCHES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS IF THE SATURATED LAYER GETS THICK ENOUGH.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST THIS
AFTERNOON, PRODUCING WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH IN THE MTNS
AND DESERTS LOCALLY TO 55 MPH IN THE NORTHERN COACHELLA VALLEY
BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE DEEP WITH
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INLAND TO THE COASTAL MTN SLOPES EACH NIGHT
AND MORNING.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A WARMING TREND
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH AFTER TUESDAY,
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AND INTRODUCE MORE
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE WED AND
THU WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE COASTAL AREAS TO 5-12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, MTNS AND DESERTS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK TO THE INLAND VALLEYS,
MTNS AND HIGH DESERTS, AND AREAS OF HIGH HEATRISK TO THE LOWER
DESERTS.
AS WE APPROACH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, A PERCENTAGE OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND
DISPLACE THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS COULD LOWER TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN, DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD
FARTHER INLAND. IF THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT VERIFY, THE HEATRISK
CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
190930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED IN FROM THE COAST
AND FILLED THE COASTAL BASIN ALL THE WAY TO THE FOOTHILLS. CLOUD
BASES ARE 800-2100FT MSL WITH LOCAL VIS REDUCED 1-5SM WHERE CLOUDS
INTERSECT TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN CLEARING INLAND AREAS AFTER
16Z, CLEARING COASTAL AREAS BY 18Z. LOW CLOUDS RETURN AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL SD, AFTER 04-06Z SATURDAY FOR OC, AND FILLING
THE COASTAL BASIN BY 09-12Z.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES
AND INTO DESERTS RETURN AFTER 21Z, LASTING THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY.
THERE COULD BE TEMPORARY VIS RESTRICTIONS IN FU (WILDFIRE SMOKE) IN
AND AROUND THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND THE NORTHERN COACHELLA VALLEY.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF
OF 3-5 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT SOUTH-FACING
BEACHES. EXPECT LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS WITH HIGH RIP
CURRENT AND LONGSHORE CURRENT RISK. SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
FOR MORE DETAILS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...VILLAFANE
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