271
FXUS66 KSGX 192003
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
103 PM PDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
REACHING INTO PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WARMING TREND EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK POSSIBLE FOR THE DESERTS AND
MODERATE HEATRISK FOR INLAND ORANGE COUNTY, VALLEYS, AND MOUNTAINS
MID NEXT WEEK. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOWER NEXT WEEK,
STAYING CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THE MARINE LAYER WAS SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER THIS MORNING DOWN TO 2500 FT
FROM 3000 FT YESTERDAY. THAT DID NOT HAMPER THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE
CLOUD COVERAGE THIS MORNING, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWING LOW CLOUDS IN THE ENTIRE COASTAL BASIN AND THROUGH THE CAJON
PASS. THE INVERSION ON THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM KNKX WAS A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WHICH HAS HELPED THE SPEED OF CLEARING. THERE
ARE ALSO HIGHER CHANCES OF THE BEACHES CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS DUE TO A PASSING TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO COOLER CONDITIONS
(AND THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER), ELEVATED SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL REACH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND WITH
LOCAL GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE NORTHERN COACHELLA VALLEY BELOW THE SAN
GORGONIO PASS.
A MORE ZONAL PATTER ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING, WITH CONTINUED WARMING FOR THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST US
AND DRIFTS WEST OVER CALIFORNIA. CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NBM
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK AWAY
FROM THE COAST AND AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK IN THE LOW DESERT.
HOTTEST CONDITIONS BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
THAT WOULD RESULT IN WARMER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES,
LIMITING OVERNIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND MAKING IT FEEL HUMID. AS
FAR AS THE MARINE LAYER GOES, THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND INFLUX
OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER AND LIMITED LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
THE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL FORECAST SOLUTIONS STARTS TO INCREASE FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA DURING
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTS AND
VALLEYS. BY THURSDAY, THE SPREAD IN NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES IS 9 TO 11
DEGREES BETWEEN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE (COOLER) AND 90TH
PERCENTILE (WARMER. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPS, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS AND
ELEVATED HEATRISK TO CONTINUE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
191830Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED AROUND 2500 FT MSL
CURRENTLY LINGERING IN ORANGE COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN INLAND EMPIRE
WILL SCATTER OUT BY 19-20Z. CLOUDS REDEVELOP STARTING 00-02Z OVER
COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH BASES 2000-2500 FT MSL. CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD AND INLAND LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, FILLING
THE COASTAL BASIN ENTIRELY BY 10-12Z SAT. LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
TOWARD THE COASTLINE 16-19Z SAT.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-40 KTS RETURN AFTER 21Z FOR
DESERT SLOPES AND DESERTS. GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS THROUGH THE BANNING
PASS AND INTO THE NORTHERN COACHELLA VALLEY ALONG WITH MINOR VIS
REDUCTIONS IN BLDU. MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS IN LEE OF MTNS. WINDS
SLOWLY TAPER OFF 06-12Z SAT.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
BEACHES
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
POTENTIALLY BEYOND. SURF OF 3-5 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 6 FEET ARE
EXPECTED AT SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. EXPECT LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH RIP CURRENT AND LONGSHORE CURRENT RISK. SEE THE
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...KW
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