529
FXUS66 KSGX 200911
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
211 AM PDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH LIMITED MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURN WITH MORE COVERAGE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF THE
VALLEYS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARMING TREND EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK
POSSIBLE FOR THE DESERTS AND MODERATE HEATRISK FOR INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY, VALLEYS, AND MOUNTAINS MID NEXT WEEK. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL BECOME SHALLOWER NEXT WEEK, STAYING CONFINED TO COASTAL
AREAS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THIS MORNING...THERE IS A LOT LESS LOW CLOUD COVERAGE THAN AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY, LIKELY DUE TO ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TRENDING
WEAKER. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 6
TO 8 HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LIMITED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
DEEP WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREADING UP TO 20 MILES INLAND
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-45 MPH IN THE MTN PASSES AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OVERALL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND AREAS OF MODERATE
HEATRISK AWAY FROM THE COAST AND AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK IN THE
LOW DESERT. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ALOFT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING LOWER THAN
EXPECTED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WITH OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOSTLY
RESTRICTED TO THE COASTAL AREAS.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK. A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS NOW SHOW SOME WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. THIS COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND AS WE APPROACH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT FRIDAY, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COULD
BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE MTNS AND 2-7 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE DESERTS.
AVIATION
200630Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS ARE GETTING A LATE START THIS
EVENING WITH JUST A FINGER OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1500FT MSL POKING
INTO KCRQ. LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 1500-2000FT MSL WILL SLOWLY FORM
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, MAINLY OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY IN NATURE AND NOT TO THE SAME EXTENT AS WAS
SEEN LAST NIGHT. INLAND VIS RESTRICTIONS 1-5SM WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT 16-
19Z. LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP AFTER 01Z SUNDAY BEGINNING OVER COASTAL SD
COUNTY.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-45 KTS, LOCALLY 50 KTS THROUGH
MOUNTAIN PASSES INTO DESERTS THROUGH 10Z. LOCAL VIS REDUCED IN BLDU.
MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS IN LEE OF MTNS. WESTERLY WINDS 30-40 KTS
REDEVELOP THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES INTO DESERTS AFTER 18Z.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHES
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
POTENTIALLY LONGER. SURF OF 3-5 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 6 FEET ARE
EXPECTED AT SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. EXPECT LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH RIP CURRENT AND LONGSHORE CURRENT RISK. SEE THE
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...VILLAFANE
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