881
FXUS66 KSGX 231840
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1140 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BRING A WARMING TREND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE HEATRISK FOR THE DESERTS. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERTS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GUSTS ON SATURDAY
TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH IN THE NORTHERN COACHELLA
VALLEY BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND TODAY
WITH SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE NEAR THE COAST TO 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE INLAND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE 90S FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH 108 TO
112 FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS WELL
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MOSTLY IN THE 80S FOR
THE LOWER DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN AROUND 2000 FEET
DEEP WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN VALLEYS LATE EACH NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR EL
PASO WILL ALLOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT. THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX FOR PRECIPITATION HAS A
LARGE SHIFT OF TAILS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THIS AREA, MOST LIKELY A REFLECTION OF A FEW RELATIVELY WETTER
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DURING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF THE
YEAR FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD JUST OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE SLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
STRENGTHEN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GUSTS ON SATURDAY OF
30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH IN THE NORTHERN COACHELLA
VALLEY BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS SPREADING FARTHER INTO
THE VALLEYS LATE EACH NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH THE MID 90S TO 102 FOR THE LOWER
DESERTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.
AVIATION
230930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...A STRONGER INVERSION HAS KEPT THE CLOUDS
IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST INTO THE LATE MORNING, BUT ALL TAF SITES
SHOULD SEE CIGS (CURRENTLY BASED AROUND 1700-1900FT MSL) CLEARING
OUT BY 1900-1930Z. LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES CLOSER TO 1400-1600FT MSL
BEGIN TO FILL BACK IN AFTER 03Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN INCREASED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE, THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE PATCHIER IN COVERAGE THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS, AND TAKE LONGER TO FILL IN TO SOME AREAS. CLOUDS
SCATTER BACK OFF THE COASTS AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
BEACHES
SURF WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A 3 FOOT 15 TO
18 SECOND PERIOD SOUTH SWELL FROM 190 TO 210 DEGREES. SURF OF 4 TO 6
FT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR VICTOR VALLEY -APPLE VALLEY -LUCERNE VALLEY -JOHNSON
VALLEY.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MARTIN
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MUNYAN
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