310
FXUS66 KSGX 240537
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1037 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH HEATRISK FOR THE DESERTS. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERTS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH GUSTS
ON SATURDAY OF 30 TO 40 MPH LOCALLY TO 65 MPH IN THE NORTHERN
COACHELLA VALLEY BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS
THIS AFTERNOON...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
PRODUCING SOME HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ACROSS THE MTNS AND
DESERTS OF SOCAL. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THIS COULD RESULT
IN FIRE STARTS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABOUT 2000-2500 FT DEEP WITH A STRONG INVERSION
SO SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE PERSISTING AT THE BEACHES. THE MOISTURE
ALOFT COULD DISRUPT THE RADIATION COOLING TONIGHT SO LOW CLOUD
COVERAGE MAY BE LESS TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES LOWER WEST OF THE MTNS THAN AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WHILE THE MTNS AND DESERTS ARE GENERALLY WARMER BY AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING
TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A MINOR DROP IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE NEAR THE COAST TO 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE 90S FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH
108 TO 112 FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS
WELL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING MOSTLY IN THE 80S
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN AROUND 2000
FEET DEEP WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING
INLAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN VALLEYS LATE EACH NIGHT. THE
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOCAL FROM THE SOUTH
BUT THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER US TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY TO OUR
NORTH BY TOMORROW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE STABILITY
MAKING DEEP CONVECTION LESS LIKELY TOMORROW.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF AK WILL
STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE SLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS ON SATURDAY OF 30 TO 40 MPH LOCALLY
TO 65 MPH IN THE NORTHERN COACHELLA VALLEY BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO
PASS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING FARTHER INTO THE VALLEYS LATE EACH NIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS MUCH AS 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST TO
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH THE MID 90S TO
102 FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE MARGINALLY WARMER.
AVIATION
240530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES
15000-20000FT MLS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE AREA. THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL RESULT IN PATCHY LOW CLOUD FORMATION WITH BASES EXPECTED
BETWEEN 1000-2000FT MSL. THERE ARE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
OFF COASTAL AREAS AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST AFTER
07-09Z FOR SD AND A 30-40% CHANCE OF FORMATION AFTER 09-11Z FOR OC.
LOW CLOUDS CLEAR LAND AREAS 16-17Z. LOW CLOUDS WITH SIMILAR BASES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 03-04Z THURSDAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000FT MSL. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOSTLY CLEAR THE AREA BY 22-23Z GIVING WAY TO PREDOMINATELY
CLEAR SKIES.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
BEACHES
SURF WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A 3
FOOT 15 TO 18 SECOND PERIOD SOUTH SWELL FROM 190 TO 210 DEGREES.
SURF OF 4 TO 6 FT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE
WEEK. SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR VICTOR VALLEY -
APPLE VALLEY -LUCERNE VALLEY -JOHNSON VALLEY.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...VILLAFANE
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