702
FXUS66 KSGX 160624
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1124 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE PEAK OF THE HEAT WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH CONDITIONS
NOT AS HOT BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED HEAT RISK WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY CHANCES FOR MONSOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HIGHEST ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY INTO THE DESERTS.
TEMPERATURES STICK NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..UPDATED AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSION
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1145 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2026...
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BUBBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS VIA
SATELLITE AND OUT OUR WEATHER WINDOWS AT THE OFFICE AS WE NEAR THE
LUNCH HOUR. THE CHANCE IS THERE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ALONG PENINSULAR RANGES FROM
THE MEXICAN BORDER TO THE BIG BEAR LAKE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY WITH LESS
INSTABILITY, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO SEE WHAT MOTHER NATURE HAS IN STORE
FOR US. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR PEAK THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE
MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL BE PRESENT FOR MANY INLAND, LOCALLY MAJOR
FOR FAR INLAND VALLEYS AND THE LOWER DESERTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
LOWER A FEW DEGREES BY THURSDAY, WHILST HEAT ALERTS REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUR NEAR TO JUST
OVER 100 DEGREES FOR INLAND VALLEYS FROM RAMONA TO ONTARIO. EVEN
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S.
SUBTLE INCREASES IN MOISTURE ARE SEEN IN MODEL GUIDANCE BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LEADING TO AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS, LOCALLY INTO THE
DESERTS. A LITTLE MORE HESITANT WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY SEEN IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, SO CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER END. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CHANCES NEAR 15-40% EACH AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND NORTH OF BIG BEAR IN THE
HIGH DESERT.
BY SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
CLOCKWISE MONSOONAL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
IT, MOVING MORE INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN ELEVATED FOR OUR AREA THOUGH, SO CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY IS A GOOD BET, BUT THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THESE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PRODUCING
ANY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE EACH DAY WITH
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BLANKETING AREAS UP TO 20 MILES INLAND EACH
NIGHT AND MORNING.
AVIATION
160600Z....COAST/VALLEYS...VERY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 600-
900FT MSL MAY IMPACT COASTAL TAF SITES TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY FOR
SOUTHERN SD WITH DECREASING CHANCES FARTHER NORTH. CIG CHANCES FOR
KSAN ARE 40-50% (10-16Z), WITH A 15-20% CHANCE FOR KCRQ AND KSNA
AFTER 11Z. ANY CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT BY 16Z. OTHERWISE, FEW-
SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15,000FT MSL. SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCES FOR LOW
CLOUDS AT COASTAL SITES FRI AFTER 09Z, WITH A 60% CHANCE OR SO FOR
CIGS AT KSAN AGAIN DECREASING TO 40% CHANCE AT KCRQ AND 20% CHANCE
AT KSNA.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15,000 FT AND VFR
CONDITIONS. SCT CU BASED AROUND 12,000FT MSL ALONG WITH ISO TSRA
OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z THROUGH ABOUT 03Z
FRI.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
BEACHES
HIGH AMPLITUDE SOUTHERLY SWELL (4-5 FT) WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE
CURRENTS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST SURF WILL BE ALONG
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST-FACING BEACHES.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR COACHELLA
VALLEY-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO
COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CSP
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