031
FXUS66 KSGX 160938
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
238 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT
COOLING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOLING TO AROUND AVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING AROUND AVERAGE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TODAY AND SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE
WEEKEND, THEN SLOWLY DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE
MOUNTAINS ONTO THE DESERT SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND A 15 TO 25
PERCENT CHANCE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MAJOR HEATRISK IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
MID 90S TO 104 OF THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH 108 TO 112 FOR THE LOWER
DESERTS.
THERE WILL BE GREATER COOLING ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S NEAR THE COAST TO
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH 104 TO 108
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN
TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO THE WEEKEND, THEN A
SLIGHT DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE DESERT SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND A
15 TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE REFS 90TH
PERCENTILE HOURLY RAINFALL IS AROUND 0.50 TO 1 INCH FROM ANY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY, THEN
MAY WARM A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS. WITH THE WARMING, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 NEAR THE COAST TO
THE 90S FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH 104 TO 108 FOR THE LOWER
DESERTS.
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE RESULTING STRENGTH OF EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. THOSE
SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS HAVE THE STRONGER EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND RESULTING GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
AREA. THOSE SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE SEPARATE CENTERS OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS AND OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC ARE WEAKER WITH THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LESS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION
160930Z....COAST/VALLEYS...VERY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 600-
900FT MSL ARE PRESENT ALONG THE COAST, MOST WIDESPREAD IN SOUTHERN
SAN DIEGO CO. THERE IS ABOUT A 20%/40% CHANCE FOR KCRQ/KSNA
RESPECTIVELY TO SEE CIGS THROUGH 15Z; CLOUDS INLAND WILL CLEAR BY
16Z. OTHERWISE, PERIODS OF FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15,000FT MSL AND
SOUTHERLY BREEZES TODAY. FOR THIS EVENING, THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD, ALBEIT STILL PATCHY, LOW CLOUDS AFTER 08Z FRI.
HIGHEST CHANCES AGAIN FOR KSAN, WITH 30-40% CHANCE AT KCRQ/KSNA.
SIMILAR BASES AND VIS TO THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15,000 FT AND VFR
CONDITIONS. SCT CU BASED AROUND 12,000FT MSL ALONG WITH ISO TSRA
OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z THROUGH ABOUT 03Z FRI.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
BEACHES
HIGH AMPLITUDE SOUTHERLY SWELL (4-5 FT) WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE
CURRENTS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST SURF WILL BE ALONG
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST-FACING BEACHES.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COACHELLA
VALLEY-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO
COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CSP
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