282
FXUS66 KSGX 180036
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
536 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES COOLING FOR INLAND AREAS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELEVATED ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STORM CHANCES BEGIN TO
DECREASE WITH MINOR CHANCES EXPECTED FOR HIGHEST RIDGES IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR INCREASING CHANCES
LATER IN THE WEEK. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER COASTAL
AREAS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING INTO THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
..UPDATED BEACHES DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOES SHOWS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF SOCAL
AND FURTHER TO THE EAST, WITH DRYING TRENDS NOTICED OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. CLEARING THIS MORNING WILL CREATE A
BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. COMPARING YESTERDAY TO TODAY, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
SEEMINGLY A BIT LESS PRIMED WITH LESS INSTABILITY, THOUGH PWATS ARE
STILL NEAR 1.5", PLENTY MOIST ENOUGH. LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
AGAIN FAVORS THE RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS TO RECEIVE
THE GREATEST RAINFALL, LOCALLY NEAR 0.50"-1" PER HOUR RATES, FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL FEEL NOT AS HOT AS
YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S ACROSS THE IE AND HIGH DESERT, AND 70S/80S FOR THE
COAST, WESTERN VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. ELEVATED HUMIDITY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WILL REMAIN THOUGH.
MOISTURE AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
DECREASES AND PUSHES FURTHER EAST BY THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL
STILL REMAIN IN PLACE, SO CHANCES DO REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS OF SBD/RIV COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO
DRY OUT A BIT FURTHER BY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING CHANCES
NEAR 10-15% ALONG THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE SBD MTS. OTHER THAN THIS,
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
THE FORECAST IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE BECOMES LESS CERTAIN BY THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO BE SPLIT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH WILL DICTATE WHERE AND
HOW MUCH MONSOONAL MOISTURE WE ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE. THIS WILL ALSO
DICTATE IF WE STAY NEAR NORMAL OR WARM SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
180030Z....COAST/VALLEYS...LOOKING AT MULTIPLE CLOUD DECKS ALONG THE
COAST WITH BASES AROUND 1,500FT MSL IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO AND BASES
AROUND 4,000FT MSL IN ORANGE COUNTY. HIGHER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN MOVING THROUGH AROUND 15,000-20,000FT MSL. A FEW LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN SD AFTER 05-06Z, AND SPREADING NORTH INTO
OC AFTER 08-09Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PATCHY WITH BASES BETWEEN 900-
1,200FT MSL. LOW CLOUDS CLEAR 16-17Z.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 15,000FT MSL FORMING NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
SCT CU BASED 10-12 KFT MSL AND ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO MTNS AFTER 18Z, MOST LIKELY 20Z,
THROUGH 01Z SUNDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS, AND VIS REDUCTIONS.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
HIGH AMPLITUDE SOUTHERLY SWELL (4-5 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 12-13
SECONDS) WILL BUILD SUNDAY, BRINGING ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF AND
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. HIGHEST SURF, UP TO 7-9 FT, WILL BE ALONG SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST-FACING BEACHES. FURTHER DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY. SURF FALLS A BIT AFTER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER SOUTHERLY SWELL (3-4 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 15
SECONDS) BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED SURF FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, THERE WILL BE A
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...VILLAFANE
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