105
FXUS66 KSGX 180823
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
123 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WARMEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY
LIGHT SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR, BUT
GIVEN THE VERY DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB AND LACK OF ANY GAUGE
REPORTS, MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE SURFACE SO EXPECT A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST. OTHERWISE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING AT THE COAST AND UP TO 10-15 MI
INLAND, CLEARING BY MID MORNING. GIVEN THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE AND A GENERAL DRYING TREND WITH LESS INSTABILITY,
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS, BUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 10%.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR CO
AND WY. TROPICAL STORM ELIDA, CURRENTLY AROUND 900 MI WEST OF CABO
SAN LUCAS, WILL MOVE NORTH OFF THE WEST COAST AND WEAKEN INTO
TUESDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK, NO WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT WILL GENERATE HIGHER SWELL AND
SURF THOUGH - SEE THE BEACHES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
MINOR DRYING OCCURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE GRADUALLY BECOMING HIGHER BASED, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. FORECAST MAINTAINS
AROUND A 15% CHANCE OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH TUESDAY - MID 70S TO LOW 80S
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS, LOW 80S TO MID 90S IN THE VALLEYS, MID 70S
TO AROUND 90 IN THE MOUNTAINS, MID 90S TO AROUND 100 IN THE HIGH
DESERT, AND 100-108 IN THE LOW DESERT. AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND FAR WESTERN
VALLEYS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER HIGH SINKS
SOUTH TOWARDS TX AND STRENGTHENS. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLES ON THE POSITION OF THE HIGH AND HOW FAR WEST THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND. THIS WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH WARMING WE SEE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL
BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER
PEAKS SOMETIME AROUND THU-FRI FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT IF THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TOO FAR WEST IT
MAY BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WARMEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
180530Z....COAST/VALLEYS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS 15-20KFT MSL ARE
CURRENTLY INHIBITING LOW CLOUDS FROM FORMING ALONG THE COAST, WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 08-09Z. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS 900-1300 FT
MSL WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL REGIONS AFTER, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
AS MID-LEVELS CONTINUE TO CLEAR TOWARDS AROUND 12Z. LOW CLOUDS CLEAR
15-17Z, THEN REFORM AT SIMILAR BASES AND MOVE INTO COASTAL REGIONS
AFTER 05Z SUN.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 15,000FT MSL GRADUALLY CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. SCT CU BASED 10-12 KFT MSL WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO MTNS AFTER 18Z AND ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA,
MOST LIKELY AFTER 20Z, THROUGH 01Z SUNDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND VIS REDUCTIONS.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
HIGH AMPLITUDE SOUTHERLY SWELL (4-5 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 12-13
SECONDS) WILL BUILD SUNDAY, BRINGING ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF AND
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. HIGHEST SURF, UP TO 7-9 FT, WILL BE ALONG SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST-FACING BEACHES. FURTHER DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY. SURF FALLS A BIT AFTER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER SOUTHERLY SWELL (3-4 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 15
SECONDS) BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED SURF FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE HIGH RISK FOR STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CSP
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