251
FXUS66 KSGX 131144
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
444 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH STRENGTHENING SANTA ANA
WINDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOLING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO
THE COAST AND VALLEYS DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS SLOWLY WARM.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE CENTER OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA TODAY, THEN MOVE TO THE EAST AND NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY. A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING ON
THURSDAY WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN
BAJA.
THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN FROM
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS MOVING INLAND INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY WILL TRANSITION
TO MOVING NOT AS FAR INLAND AND MOSTLY INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE COUNTY, CLEARING FROM SOUTHWESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AROUND
SUNRISE.
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING WILL THEN FOLLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL WARM 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND INLAND EMPIRE AND LOCALLY 15 DEGREES FOR SOME MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS. THAT WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. ON THURSDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW TO AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR THE DESERTS
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR THE COAST
INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE DESERTS INTO THE MOUNTAINS WITH COASTAL AREAS 8 TO
12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 80S FOR THE BEACHES. ELSEWHERE FOR THE COAST AND
VALLEYS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 FOR THE FAR
INLAND VALLEYS TO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR INLAND COASTAL
AREAS INTO THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
MODERATE HEATRISK FOR COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY.
THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND NORTHEAST TO EAST ON THURSDAY WITH COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
THE WINDS INCREASING ON THURSDAY. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL GUST TO 20
TO 30 MPH FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS ALONG AND
BELOW THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 MPH
ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH ECMWF
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT STILL SHOWING THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS AT
CAMPO ON FRIDAY, THEN NOT AS STRONG ON SATURDAY. WINDS ON FRIDAY
COULD GUSTS TO 45 TO 55 MPH WITH EASTERLY SANTA ANA WINDS
EXTENDING TO NEAR THE COAST IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ON FRIDAY, THEN COOL A FEW
TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY FOR
THE BEACHES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. ELSEWHERE FOR THE
COAST AND VALLEYS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S FOR THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
FOR INLAND COASTAL AREAS INTO THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK IS EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS INTO THE
WESTERN VALLEYS FOR FRIDAY, THEN MOSTLY MODERATE HEATRISK JUST FOR
COASTAL AREAS ON SATURDAY.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND INTO THE COAST
AND VALLEYS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WARM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY A FEW TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. ON MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE 80S FOR
THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH THE LOWER DESERTS IN THE LOWER 90S.
THAT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD TRANSPORT SOME TROPICAL
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW AND BE MAINLY FOR THE LOWER
DESERTS EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA, IT SHOULD PUT A FLOOR ON ANY
DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOWEST HUMIDITY
FOR INLAND COASTAL AREAS INTO THE VALLEYS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
131130Z...BKN CLOUDS BASED 3500-6000 FEET MSL THROUGH 17Z IN WESTERN
SAN DIEGO COUNTY, WITH LOCAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION IN FOOTHILLS. SCT
CLOUDS NORTH AND CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 17Z. MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER, EXCEPT FOR SCT-BKN CUMULUS BASED AT 8-10 KFT OVER
ALL MOUNTAINS 18-00Z. NORTH WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS AFTER 20Z IN SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND LOCALLY INTO NORTHEAST INLAND
EMPIRE THROUGH 03Z.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, EXCEPT
ISOLATED NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED 20 KTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
BEACHES
A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TODAY, GENERATING SURF 3-
5 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 7 FEET, ALONG WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
LATE MORNING HIGH TIDES NEAR 7 FEET WILL CONTINUE, PRODUCING MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. CHECK THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM
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