206
FXUS66 KSGX 132103
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
203 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OFF THE COAST. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE MIX, WHERE STRONGER SANTA ANA WINDS AND
MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE HEAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
A 559 MB LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA CONTINUES TO BRING THE
MUCH COOLER (AND WELCOMING FOR SOME) WEATHER PATTERN. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE ONLY IN THE 60S AND 70S WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND IN THE DESERTS, WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE DESERTS.
SCAN YOUR EYES ACROSS THE SKY BECAUSE THAT MAY BE THE LAST TIME YOU
SEE ANY LARGE CONCENTRATIONS OF CLOUDS THIS WEEK. THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST EXPANDS. THIS WILL BEGIN A
LARGER WARMING TREND. BY WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE 5-10
DEGREES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY NEAR AVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. COMFORTABLE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FOR THE
DESERTS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. THE WIND FLOW BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL START TO TURN OFFSHORE, WITH PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
SLOPES AND INLAND EMPIRE SEEING ELEVATED SANTA ANA WINDS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, A
CUTOFF LOW WILL DETACH FROM THIS AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST AMPLIFIES INTO THE PAC NW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL TIGHTEN, LEADING TO INCREASED SANTA ANA WINDS
ACROSS SOCAL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN, AT FIRST MORE
NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY, FAVORING THE SAN BERNARDINO
MTS AND LA BASIN REGION. THE LOW MEANDERS SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH
FRIDAY INTO EVEN SATURDAY, WHICH WILL FAVOR MORE EASTERLY WINDS,
LEADING TO HIGHER WINDS IN THE RIVERSIDE/SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND PASSES. HIGH WIND WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL MOUNTAIN
AREAS, THE INLAND EMPIRE AND SAN DIEGO CO FOOTHILLS. WINDS WILL GUST
NEAR 50-65 MPH AT TIMES, LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG COASTAL SLOPES AND THE
SAN GORGONIO PASS. ALL AREAS ARE UNDER THIS WATCH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH SAN DIEGO COUNTY UNDER THE WATCH UNTIL SATURDAY AS
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW LONG THE HIGH WINDS LAST.
SANTA ANA WINDS OFTEN MEAN WARM CONDITIONS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS!
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S AND
90S IN THESE REGIONS. THE COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY
WILL SEE THE GREATEST WARMING WITH SOME SPOTS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S BY FRIDAY. NBM SHOWS 30-50% CHANCE THAT PORTIONS OF INLAND
ORANGE COUNTY SEE HIGHS ABOVE 95, ABOUT 10-30% IN THE SAN DIEGO
METRO. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO STAY ABOVE 70 DEGREES IN SOME
SPOTS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGH HEAT RISK IMPACTS.
MODELS SHOW THE LOW WEAKENING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
A TROUGH BEGINS TO ENTER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL TURN WINDS
ONSHORE AND BRING COOLING TO THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL MAKE SOME HEADWAY DOWN THE CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE, WHICH WOULD DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL SOMETIME
AROUND TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS, COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS, AND EVEN SOME PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
131900Z...FEW-SCT LOW TO MID CLOUDS 2500-4500 FT MSL FOR THE COAST
AND VALLEYS AND SCT-BKN CUMULUS BASED AT 8000-10000 FT MSL OVER ALL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS AFTER
20Z IN SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND LOCALLY INTO NORTHEAST
INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH 03Z. WEAK ENE WINDS EXPECTED EARLY WED AM
ACROSS THE COASTAL BASIN.
MARINE
ISOLATED NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED 20 KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
EMPIRE-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...CO
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