772
FXUS66 KSGX 140838
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
138 AM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY, BECOMING
NORTHEAST TO EAST WITH SANTA ANA WINDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 45
MPH ON THURSDAY AND 45 TO 55 MPH ON FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISHING TO 35
TO 45 MPH ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH
FRIDAY. COOLING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH
GREATER COOLING AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EXPAND ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY, BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST WITH
SANTA ANA WINDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD.
ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT FOR CAMPO CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER WITH
THE SANTA ANA WINDS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE WINDS FOR SATURDAY NOW
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE WINDS FOR THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX ON
FRIDAY HAS GUSTS IN THE 80TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE AND LOCALLY INTO
THE 95TH TO 99TH PERCENTILE. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR CAMPO HAS
UNCALIBRATED GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AND
55 TO 60 MPH ON FRIDAY. SANTA ANA WINDS COULD EXTENDED NEARLY TO
THE COAST IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY ON FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
WARMING AS MUCH AS 8 TO 12 DEGREES FOR THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS.
THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING FROM AROUND 5 DEGREES TO 10 TO LOCALLY 15 DEGREES FOR
COASTAL AREAS INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WITH COASTAL AREAS AS MUCH AS 12 TO
18 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH THE REST OF THE COAST AND
VALLEYS RANGING FOR THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS
TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR INLAND COASTAL AREAS INTO THE
WESTERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER OR COOLER THAN THURSDAY DEPENDING ON LOCATION.
MODERATE HEATRISK IS EXPECTED FOR THE COAST INTO THE WESTERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAJOR
HEATRISK FOR SOME COASTAL AREAS ON FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL ON SATURDAY WITH COOLING
SPREADING INLAND ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE NORTH COULD BRING GREATER COOLING AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
140530Z...SKC AND VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. NORTH WINDS
INTERMITTENTLY GUSTING 20-30 MPH ALONG COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY INTO NORTHEAST INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH 16Z.
MARINE
ISOLATED NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED 20 KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
BEACHES
A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY,
GENERATING SURF 3-6 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 7 FEET, ALONG WITH
STRONG RIP CURRENTS. LATE MORNING HIGH TIDES NEAR 6.5 FEET WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, PRODUCING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. TIDES
ARE EXPECTED FALL BELOW 6.5 FT MHHW AFTER THE THURSDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE, DIMINISHING THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
EMPIRE-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...KW
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