709
FXUS66 KSGX 141902
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1202 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
SANTA ANA WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE TO
MAJOR HEATRISK IS EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD INLAND SUNDAY, WITH GREATER COOLING AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
WE'RE ALREADY SEEING AN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SAN DIEGO TO
TONOPAH, NV. AS OF 11 AM THERE WERE WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
BEING OBSERVED WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20 TO 25 MPH, A FEW LOCAL GUSTS TO
30 MPH IN WINDIER LOCATIONS. FOR THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADING
BACK TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THAT WILL STRENGTHEN THE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE WINDS. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THAT
LOW WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN BAJA, MAINTAINING A STRONG OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE FOOTHILLS AND BELOW PASSES IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AND THEY DEVELOP MORE OF AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT. THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX ON FRIDAY HAS
GUSTS IN THE 80TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE AND LOCALLY INTO THE 95TH TO
99TH PERCENTILE. WIND GUSTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXCEED 65 MPH IN
THE TYPICALLY WINDY SPOTS LIKE NEAR THE CAJON PASS, IN WIND PRONE
CANYONS IN THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS, AND IN WIND PRONE SPOTS IN THE
SAN DIEGO MOUNTAINS. SANTA ANA WINDS COULD EXTENDED TO COASTAL AREAS
ON FRIDAY, WITH A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOCAL WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 35 MPH. WINDS BECOME WEAKER AND EASTERLY ON SATURDAY,
WITH GUST 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE VALLEYS AND BELOW PASSES, AND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH ON MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND BELOW PASSES. WEAKER OFFSHORE
WINDS MAY CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES SUNDAY WITH
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY.
THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO,
WILL HELP KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY ELEVATED AND COULD ELEVATE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS IN THE DESERTS. RIGHT NOW CHANCES ARE 10 PERCENT OR LESS,
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WITH COASTAL AREAS AS MUCH AS 12 TO 18
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BRINGING HIGHS CLOSER TO 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. MODERATE HEATRISK IS
EXPECTED FOR THE COAST INTO THE WESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAJOR HEATRISK FOR SOME COASTAL AREAS
ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE BUT COOL A FEW
DEGREES ON SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO NEXT WEEK.
WE'RE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH
THE GEFS GUIDANCE TRENDING MORE INSIDE AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK. WHILE THERE REMAINS THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN COOLER AND
WINDIER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
141800Z...SKC AND VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF NORTHEAST
LOCALIZED WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KTS IN THE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS
INCREASING AFTER 10Z WITH GUSTS 20-45 KTS, SPREADING INTO INLAND
VALLEYS AFTER 12Z, INCLUDING INTO PARTS OF THE IE.
MARINE
ISOLATED NORTHEAST GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KNOTS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.
BEACHES
A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THIS WEEK,
GENERATING SURF 3-6 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 7 FEET, ALONG WITH
STRONG RIP CURRENTS. LATE MORNING HIGH TIDES NEAR 6.5 FEET WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, PRODUCING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. TIDES
ARE EXPECTED FALL BELOW 6.5 FT MLLW AFTER THE THURSDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE, DIMINISHING THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
EMPIRE.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR ORANGE
COUNTY INLAND AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CSP
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