665
FXUS66 KSGX 151126
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
426 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
SANTA ANA WINDS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE TO
MAJOR HEATRISK IS EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD INLAND SUNDAY, WITH GREATER COOLING AND CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN CUT OFF EAST OF THE REGION
ESTABLISHES ITSELF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, WITH A HIGH
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHWESTERN NEVADA IN A REX BLOCKING
PATTERN, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO ARE GOING TO ALLOW
FOR OFFSHORE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN, INITALLY OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY, AND THEN BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS AT
AROUND 35 TO 55 MPH FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS, AND STRONGER GUSTS ALONG
THE SLOPES, WITH LOCAL GUSTS APPROACHING 70 MPH WITHIN SOME OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PASSES AND CANYONS. AS THE LOW TAPS INTO SOME OF THE
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM SIMON, IT WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TOMORROW, AND THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. RH VALUES WILL DIMINISH TO 15-25 PERCENT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT
MINIMUM VALUES FROM FRIDAY, WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. (SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FOR THE
COASTAL LOCATIONS, DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO IMPEDE THE MARINE LAYER FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
THE WARMEST TOMORROW, AND FOR THE COASTAL REGIONS, RANGING FROM
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, HENCE THE REASON FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY.
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
SANTA ANA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, AND THEN THESE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
COOL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN GOING INTO SUNDAY, WHCIH MAY BRING ABOUT THE ONSET OF SOME
DENSE FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL AREAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN
LOCATIONS WITH ABUNDANT DRY FUELS WHERE TOPOGRAPHY AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE WELL ALIGNED FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NORTHEAST TO EAST SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD WINDS ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TODAY, BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST BY FRIDAY,
AND EASTERLY ON SATURDAY. GUSTS FOR THE VALLEYS WILL MAINLY BE 35
TO 55 MPH, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BELOW PASSES AND NEAR MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. FOR THE COASTAL SLOPES AND THROUGH PASSES, LOCAL GUSTS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXCEED 65 MPH. LOWEST DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THE VALLEYS AND INLAND COASTAL AREAS WILL FALL TO 15
TO 25 PERCENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THEN RECOVER TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FROM FRIDAY'S
PEAK ON SATURDAY BUT REMAIN ELEVATED. MUCH WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RETURNING TO ONSHORE
BY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT DESERTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE PROBABILITY OF THERE
BEING ANY SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN.
AVIATION
151130Z...SKC AND VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF NORTHEAST WINDS IN
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS BECOMING STRONGER GUSTING 25-45 KTS AND SPREADING
INTO VALLEYS AND INLAND COASTAL AREAS AFTER 16Z. AREAS OF MOD-STG
UP/DOWNDRAFTS IN LEE OF (SOUTH AND WEST OF) MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LLWS WHERE STRONG WINDS DO NOT SURFACE IN VALLEYS.
MARINE
ISOLATED NORTHEAST GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KNOTS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.
BEACHES
A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF 3-5 FEET WITH LOCAL
SETS TO 6 FEET TODAY, AND PRODUCE STRONG RIP CURRENTS. LATE MORNING
HIGH TIDE NEAR 6.5 FEET TODAY, PRODUCING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THEREAFTER, DIMINISHING THE THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING. CHECK THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...STEWEY
AVIATION/MARINE...MM
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