055
FXUS66 KSGX 151837
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1137 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
SANTA ANA WINDS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE TO
MAJOR HEATRISK IS EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD INLAND SUNDAY, WITH GREATER COOLING AND CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..UPDATED AVIATION/BEACHES/MARINE DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN CUT OFF EAST OF THE REGION
ESTABLISHES ITSELF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, WITH A HIGH
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHWESTERN NEVADA IN A REX BLOCKING
PATTERN, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO ARE GOING TO ALLOW
FOR OFFSHORE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN, INITIALLY OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY, AND THEN BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS AT
AROUND 35 TO 55 MPH FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS, AND STRONGER GUSTS ALONG
THE SLOPES, WITH LOCAL GUSTS APPROACHING 70 MPH WITHIN SOME OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PASSES AND CANYONS. AS THE LOW TAPS INTO SOME OF THE
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM SIMON, IT WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TOMORROW, AND THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. RH VALUES WILL DIMINISH TO 15-25 PERCENT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT
MINIMUM VALUES FROM FRIDAY, WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. (SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FOR THE
COASTAL LOCATIONS, DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO IMPEDE THE MARINE LAYER FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
THE WARMEST TOMORROW, AND FOR THE COASTAL REGIONS, RANGING FROM
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, HENCE THE REASON FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY.
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
SANTA ANA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, AND THEN THESE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
COOL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN GOING INTO SUNDAY, WHICH MAY BRING ABOUT THE ONSET OF SOME
DENSE FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL AREAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
151830Z...SKC AND VFR THROUGH FRI. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO FRI, WHEN THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR THE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS PEAK GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KT ARE
EXPECTED. FOR THE VALLEYS, GUSTS 30 TO 45 KT, LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS ARE LIKELY. COAST AND COACHELLA VALLEY WILL ALSO
SEE ELEVATED WINDS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS OF 50 KT TO OCCUR AT KONT EARLY FRI AM. WINDS MAY DECREASE
BRIEFLY AFTER 00Z FRI, INCREASING AROUND 10Z FRI. WINDS FRI WILL
WEAKEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 18-22Z. AREAS OF MOD-STG UP/DOWNDRAFTS IN
LEE OF (SOUTH AND WEST OF) MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH AREAS OF LLWS WHERE
STRONG WINDS DO NOT SURFACE. EAST WINDS CONTINUE INTO SAT.
MARINE
ISOLATED NORTHEAST GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KNOTS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.
BEACHES
A SOUTH SWELL FROM 190 TO 200 DEGREES AT 3 TO 4 FEET WITH A 15-17
SECOND PERIOD WILL GENERATE ELEVATED SURF OF 3 TO 6 FEET, WITH LOCAL
SETS TO 7 FEET. THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...STEWEY
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CO
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