222
FXUS66 KSGX 170001
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
501 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
SANTA ANA WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST AND
MOST WIDESPREAD WINDS TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK IS EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD INLAND SUNDAY, WITH GREATER COOLING, INCREASE IN WESTERLY
WINDS, AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
GUSTY WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS BEING OBSERVED ON MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS. TOP 3 WIND GUSTS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS WERE
BUCKMAN SPRINGS WITH A GUST OF 82 MPH, A 80 MPH GUST IN HELLHOLE
CANYON, AND A 78 MPH GUST IN SILL HILL. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE
TOP 3 WIND GUSTS ARE HELLHOLE CANYON, SILL HILL, AND BANNING WITH A
GUST OF 73 MPH. A MORE COMPREHENSIVE PEAK WIND GUST REPORT IS
HEADLINED ON OUR WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO HOMEPAGE. WINDS HAVE PEAKED
ACROSS THE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID, WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO SATURDAY ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES PRONE TO EAST WINDS. PEAK WIND
GUSTS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE 35 TO 55 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH
CONFINED TO WIND PRONE LOCATIONS.
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY. SOME INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 15% THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. IN
FACT, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH THERE IS AN EVEN LOWER CHANCE
(5-10%) FOR ANY WETTING RAINFALL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TODAY, GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE NEAR THE COAST TO
UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. WITH THOSE
COOLING CONDITIONS WE'RE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
WESTERLY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT SOME LOCATIONS
FURTHER NORTH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE DUE TO LACK OF ANY NOTABLE MOISTURE SOURCE, THOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER SINCE YESTERDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. WE'LL HAVE MORE DETAILS IN
THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
170000Z...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 00Z, BUT CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. MORE WEAKENING EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTER 11Z.
OTHERWISE...SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 KFT ESPECIALLY NEAR MEXICO.
MARINE
ISOLATED NORTHEAST GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KNOTS TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHES
A SOUTH SWELL INCREASING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITH SETS TO 7 FEET FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ELEVATED, HIGH TIDES WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY HIGH, AND THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS MINIMAL.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY. SOME INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 15% THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. IN
FACT, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH THERE IS AN EVEN LOWER CHANCE
(5-10%) FOR ANY WETTING RAINFALL.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1231 PM PDT SAT SEP 26 2026/
SYNOPSIS...
A LITTLE WARMER TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THEN COOLER THROUGH
MONDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS BRINGS MORE
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE DESERTS TO AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE INLAND VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THERE WERE
PATCHY MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WHICH HAVE CLEARED
OUT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST HAS BROUGHT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
THROUGH MONDAY...THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
SOCAL BY MONDAY WHILE HURRICANE ODALYS (CURRENTLY ABOUT 950 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO) SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS, BECOMING
A REMNANT LOW ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO BY MONDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL DRAW MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ODALYS
INTO SOCAL, RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THIS
SCENARIO WILL BRING LOWER TEMPERATURES, AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE COASTAL
AREAS TO AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
AND HINDER THE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO AZ ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVES INTO SOCAL. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
WARMING BEGINS ON TUESDAY AND PEAKS NEXT SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE DESERTS AND
AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LACK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT COULD ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS OF A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS.
AVIATION...
261800Z...COAST/VALLEYS...CLOUDS STRUGGLED TO PUSH ASHORE OVERNIGHT,
WITH ONLY A FEW INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF NEAR IFR CIGS OBSERVED. ALL
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OR LINGER WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN
CLOUDS FILTERING IN AOA 20K FT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
PATCHY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE INHIBITED BY
THE CIRRUS CLOUD COVER. THERE IS A WINDOW FOR INTERMITTENT CIGS
ACROSS SAN DIEGO COUNTY AROUND 7-11Z SUNDAY BEFORE WEAK OFFSHORE
WINDS LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS OVER THE WATERS, WITH A WINDOW FOR
INTERMITTENT CIGS ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AROUND 10-14Z SUNDAY. SHOULD
ANY CIGS DEVELOP, BASES WILL GENERALLY 800-1200 FT MSL, WITH VIS 1-
5SM IN BR/FG FOR ELEVATED COASTAL TERRAIN.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR PREVAILS WITH INCREASING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
20 KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE...
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS IN THE
OUTER WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHES...
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL (3-4 FT AT 13 SECONDS FROM ~200 DEGREES) FROM
HURRICANE ODALYS PERSISTS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING SURF OF 3-5
FEET WITH SETS UP TO 6 FEET, HIGHEST ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES. THE SWELL FROM HURRICANE POLO (3 FT AT 14 SECONDS
FROM ~170 DEGREES) INCREASES ON MONDAY. GIVEN THIS DIRECTION, MOST
OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WILL BE LARGELY SHELTERED FROM THIS
SWELL, BUT ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES (ESPECIALLY IN NORTH OC) SHOULD BE
IMPACTED. MEANWHILE, A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL (3-4 FT AT 7 SECONDS FROM
~290 DEGREES) ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO
SWELLS, SURF OF 3-5 FEET WITH SETS TO 6 FEET LOOKS PROBABLE ALONG
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES WITH SURF 3-5 FEET ALONG WEST-FACING
BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THIS ELEVATED SURF, THERE IS A HIGH
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY.
TIDES ARE ALREADY OBSERVED OVER 6.2 FEET AND ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, PEAKING AROUND 6.9-7.0FT
FOR THE LATE-MORNING HIGH TIDES ON MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT REMAINS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR DUE TO THE
RISK OF MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW AND MINOR COASTAL EROSION. A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED, IN EFFECT FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHEST TIDES
COMBINING WITH THE EXPECTED ELEVATED SURF. PRIMARY IMPACTS DURING
THE MORNING HIGH TIDES MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS IN ADDITION TO COASTAL EROSION.
PLEASE NOTE - LISTED TIDE PREDICTIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
ACTUAL MEASURED TIDE OBSERVATIONS.
SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...CASTRO
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