414
FXUS66 KSGX 170601
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1101 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
SANTA ANA WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST AND
MOST WIDESPREAD WINDS TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK IS EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD INLAND SUNDAY, WITH GREATER COOLING, INCREASE IN WESTERLY
WINDS, AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
GUSTY WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS BEING OBSERVED ON MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS. TOP 3 WIND GUSTS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS WERE
BUCKMAN SPRINGS WITH A GUST OF 82 MPH, A 80 MPH GUST IN HELLHOLE
CANYON, AND A 78 MPH GUST IN SILL HILL. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE
TOP 3 WIND GUSTS ARE HELLHOLE CANYON, SILL HILL, AND BANNING WITH A
GUST OF 73 MPH. A MORE COMPREHENSIVE PEAK WIND GUST REPORT IS
HEADLINED ON OUR WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO HOMEPAGE. WINDS HAVE PEAKED
ACROSS THE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID, WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO SATURDAY ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES PRONE TO EAST WINDS. PEAK WIND
GUSTS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE 35 TO 55 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH
CONFINED TO WIND PRONE LOCATIONS.
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY. SOME INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 15% THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. IN
FACT, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH THERE IS AN EVEN LOWER CHANCE
(5-10%) FOR ANY WETTING RAINFALL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TODAY, GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE NEAR THE COAST TO
UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. WITH THOSE
COOLING CONDITIONS WE'RE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
WESTERLY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT SOME LOCATIONS
FURTHER NORTH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE DUE TO LACK OF ANY NOTABLE MOISTURE SOURCE, THOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER SINCE YESTERDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. WE'LL HAVE MORE DETAILS IN
THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
170600Z...EASTERLY WINDS HAVE WEAKENED SOME ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. LOCAL GUSTS 25-35 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE
VALLEYS WITH MORE PERSISTENT GUSTS 30-45 KTS ALONG COASTAL SLOPES AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. INTERMITTENT LLWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE (KONT, KSNA, AND MAYBE KCRQ). EASTERLY
WINDS 20-35 KTS CONTINUE FOR COASTAL SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE
VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WEAKEN FURTHER AND BECOME CONFINED TO
COASTAL SLOPES BY 03-06Z SUN.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE 10 KFT THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
HIGH CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
ISOLATED NORTHEAST GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
A SOUTH SWELL INCREASING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITH SETS TO 7 FEET FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ELEVATED, HIGH TIDES WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY HIGH, AND THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS MINIMAL.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...KW
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