462
FXUS64 KSHV 161620
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1020 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW RETURNING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER SLOWLY EXPANDING NORTH
AND EAST INTO A GREATER PORTIONS OF NE TX. DID HAVE TO UPDATE SKY
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION BUT THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGINNING THINNING SLIGHTLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE RETURNING OVERNIGHT ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE
FOUR STATE REGION. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES, VALUES ARE RUNNING
VERY CLOSE, TO SLIGHTLY BELOW HOURLY TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THIS
TIME ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMP FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO DID
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS BUT DID ADJUST HOURLY DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO COINCIDE WITH CURRENT TRENDS. ALL OTHER
GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
13
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
WE ARE OFF TO ANOTHER CHILLY START THIS MORNING DESPITE THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF
SE WINDS TODAY, EVENTUALLY LEADING TO A MORE NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN
GULF MOISTURE LIFTING BACK ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, ANOTHER PLEASANT MID-NOVEMBER DAY IS ON
TAP ALTHOUGH SOME CU/STRATOCU ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST
THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD N/NE INTO MUCH OF OUR REGION
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER WILL DO VERY LITTLE
TO LIMIT INSOLATION AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORE PRONOUNCED WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION.
AS A RESULT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH A RANGE OF 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY THE EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TOWARD THE EAST COAST WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS BAJA WILL HELP TO DRAW MOISTURE
IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING IN
OUR WESTERN ZONES, LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER DAYBREAK
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN DEEP EAST TX
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALBEIT BETTER COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED IN OUR W/NW HALF WHERE FORCING WILL BE SLIGHTLY GREATER.
DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION, HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL MANAGE A RANGE OF 70S GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME IN PLACE.
/19/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NE
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TX AS CONVECTION LIFTS A BIT MORE
NORTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD WITH THE ADVANCING
TROUGH ACROSS TX ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 BY AROUND MIDDAY. THE LINE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FARTHER EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS NOW ENCOMPASSING THE REGION.
THIS IS PRIMARILY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE ADVANCING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
AS THE LINE ENCOUNTERS A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S.
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK ON
TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING EAST. HOWEVER, VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF AN AIR MASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
HOWEVER, A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT AND ITS AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY SPILL SE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE
THE STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS NEXT TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE
STARK CONTRAST IN AIR MASSES, THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE ANY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE QUITE OBVIOUS GIVEN THE SHARP DROP-OFF IN
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING FROPA COMBINED WITH VERY GUSTY N/NW WINDS.
IN FACT, WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH SO A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NECESSARY ON WEDNESDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INITIALLY ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE MAY EVEN HOVER NEAR FREEZING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERNMOST ZONES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
/19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
FOR THE 16/12Z TAFS, INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF PATCHY FOG HAVE BEEN
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR AT KMLU AND KELD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CONTINUING TO REFLECT THESE IMPACTS IN TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH
16/14Z. RAPID IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD VFR TO FOLLOW. SKC EARLY WILL BE
PUNCTUATED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AFTERNOON CU FIELD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH
THE DAY AT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS OF UP TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
SP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 60 78 67 / 0 0 50 20
MLU 73 55 79 63 / 0 0 10 10
DEQ 70 50 70 61 / 0 0 70 70
TXK 74 56 76 65 / 0 0 60 50
ELD 72 52 76 61 / 0 0 30 10
TYR 74 61 76 67 / 0 0 80 50
GGG 74 58 76 65 / 0 0 70 40
LFK 76 62 78 67 / 0 10 70 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...26
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