041
FXUS64 KSHV 171755
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
AS SUNDAY DAWNS OVER THE ARKLATEX, THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH HAS
BEEN LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
FORCING ENOUGH TO STIR UP SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP
EAST TEXAS, SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT NUDGES ITS WAY NORTH. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY.
TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE PRESENCE AND
BEHAVIOR OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY. WHILE IT IS TRUE
THAT INCREASING CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY, ALONGSIDE ELEVATED RAIN COOLING EFFECTS, TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK TO AIM FOR THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-82.
MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO OVERESTIMATE THE DEGREE TO WHICH CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN COOLING WILL RESTRICT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WARMING. THUS
ELECTING TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER NBM GUIDANCE,
WHICH LOOKS MOST REASONABLY POISED TO CAPTURE POTENTIAL
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST, LOWS WILL BE MILDER
THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS, DROPPING ONLY INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE.
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, A CLOSING LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST OVER NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS, SWINGING ITS
ATTENDANT FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
RESULTING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MARCH EAST INTO THE ARKLATEX
DURING THE DAY MONDAY, THOUGH PRECISE TIMING SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW
UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST CONSENSUS AS OF THIS WRITING SHOWS THE
ARRIVAL OF STORMS DURING THE MORNING, PUSHING EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY BULLISH IN TERMS OF ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSITY OF THIS LINE, BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND ESPECIALLY
SHEAR EXIST TO JUSTIFY THE CONTINUED AREAWIDE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRINCIPAL
HAZARD LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING SEVERE WIND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION,
BUT LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALTOGETHER
ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT REGIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS.
SP
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN TERMS OF THE TIMING
OF MONDAY'S STORMS, BUT BY SUNDOWN, THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WELL AND
TRULY PUSHING ITS WAY EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION, WITH THE LAST OF
THE RAINFALL COMING TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT AT THE LATEST.
AFTER MONDAY'S RAINFALL COMES TO AN END, QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS PSEUDO-
ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH,
FOLLOWED BY RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK,
ENHANCING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SAID COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND OUR TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEASONABLE THEN WELL
BELOW AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK. 40S AND 50S LOOK TO RETURN
TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
FIRST SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN, KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE COLDEST MORNINGS OF THE WEEK
LOOK TO BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATING WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S, AND A FEW SITES
DROPPING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. PROGRESSION OF MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN TRENDING LESS EXTREME
WITH TEMPERATURE VALUES, SO LOOK FOR SOME EBB AND FLOW IN THE
DETAILS THROUGH THE COMING DAYS. NEXT WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY,
WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES.
SP
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
A MIX OF CEILINGS WITH IN AND OUT MOSTLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AIRSPACE TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
BELIEVE MLU WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING
WHILE OUR NE TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR/LOW MVFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AIRPORTS BETWEEN POSSIBLY BECOMING LOW
VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CEILINGS CRATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS NORTH AND WEST
OF OUR TERMINALS AS WE AWAIT BETTER FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS POST SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 79 67 83 55 / 60 30 80 40
MLU 79 63 81 59 / 30 10 30 90
DEQ 70 61 73 46 / 50 60 90 10
TXK 74 65 79 51 / 60 50 90 20
ELD 76 62 81 52 / 50 30 60 70
TYR 76 67 77 52 / 60 50 90 0
GGG 76 67 79 49 / 70 40 90 10
LFK 79 69 81 52 / 60 20 90 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...13
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