756
FXUS64 KSHV 172330
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
630 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN MONDAY, AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE/BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, RESULTING IN NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO MUCH OF
THE REGION.
- WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS,
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH ANY
FLOOD THREAT EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND LOCALIZED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THE MORNING STRATOCU CIGS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT BUT CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE TO SCATTER OUT, GIVEN THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LAYER HAS DEEPENED IN THE LOWEST 6KFT PER THE 18Z KSHV RAOB.
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO MIX DOWN RESULTING IN SOME
GUSTS UPWARDS TO 20-25KTS, IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SRN PLAINS E OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WRN KS SW INTO SE CO/OK PANHANDLE. HAVE SEEN A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG AN AXIS OF DEEPENING THETA-E ADVECTION, AS WELL AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS LIFTING NE THROUGH E TX. THESE
AREAS OF -RA HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED, ALTHOUGH WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS ECNTRL AND SE LA ATTM, WITH
THE LATEST PROGS SUGGEST THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS ERN LA/MS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER W ACROSS
OUR REGION AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ENE
ACROSS THE AREA, BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS OUR REGION REMAINS WELL-CAPPED PER
THE 18Z KSHV RAOB, AND WITH LITTLE IF ANY COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WEAK IMPULSE, NOT EXPECTING MUCH DEEPENING/IMPACTS OF
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAPPING SHOULD HOLD.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE
FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSING THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR, AS WE AWAIT FOR THE
NEXT POTENTIAL IMPULSE ARRIVING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NBM HAS
DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON POPS (TO LITTLE OR NONE) ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH IS LIKELY OVERDONE, BUT DID RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO RESPECT THE MOISTURE
PROFILE AS WELL AS ASCENT EXPECTED WITH THIS APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. SOME OF THE SHORT TERM PROGS ALSO HINT AT SOME
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING, BUT OVERALL, MONDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE "PICK DAY" OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE PROGS SUGGEST THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH OK AND
NW TX MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FROM THE OZARKS INTO ERN OK AND N TX, NW OF OUR REGION. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION MIGRATING SE
AND INTERACTING WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT IS PROGGED TO EJECT NE
THROUGH ECNTRL AND NE TX BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS, CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM E TX INTO SE OK/SW
AR/POSSIBLY NW LA, BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING ENE. THUS, POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY OVER THESE AREAS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
INITIATION AREA GIVEN THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP
UNDER STRONG INSOLATION. HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
WITH THIS THREAT EXPECTED TO WANE LATE AS THE CONVECTION WEAKENS
WITH THE STABILIZING BNDRY LYR.
MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM THIS CONVECTION MAY HELP PLAY A ROLE IN
LATER CONVECTION INITIATION WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT IMPULSE ALOFT IS
SET TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY, MODEL DISCREPANCIES
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT ADDITIONAL WEAKNESSES ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS PERIODS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EVEN
THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION (IF NOT ALL) OF NEXT WEEKEND. THUS,
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, ADDITIONAL BENEFICIAL RAINFALL (SOME
POSSIBLY HEAVY), AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
15
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR PREVAILING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON MONDAY. CEILINGS FORECAST TO
BECOME MVFR NEAR DAYBREAK, IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18/15Z. CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO BREAK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, COULD SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 89 74 88 / 10 20 30 50
MLU 74 90 73 89 / 10 20 20 50
DEQ 73 88 72 84 / 20 20 30 80
TXK 75 90 74 89 / 20 20 30 60
ELD 73 88 72 88 / 20 20 20 60
TYR 76 89 75 87 / 20 10 30 60
GGG 75 89 75 87 / 20 10 30 50
LFK 75 89 75 88 / 20 20 20 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
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