645
FXUS64 KSHV 182329
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
629 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
ARKLATEX. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON A DAILY BASIS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AHEAD AND INTO THE WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL AS THE WEEK CONTINUES, DUE
TO PROLONGED CLOUD COVER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS INT HE
60S THROUGHOUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPLY THE ARKLATEX WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO WILL SEE THE LAST GENUINELY DRY PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST FOR
THE REGION, WITH ONLY LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. TODAY'S AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO GET OFF TO A WARM, MUGGY AND
OVERCAST START.
THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BEGIN TOMORROW, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT SWING INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY,
KICKING UP OUR FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL
WILL RETURN FROM THE NORTHWEST, PUSHING OUT OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS
EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING, SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA BY MIDAFTERNOON. AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
GREATEST RISK DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING AS A CLUSTER OF INTENSIFYING CONVECTION ATTEMPTS TO
ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. THE PRINCIPAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS LOOK TO
BE LARGE HAIL DEVELOPING FROM DISCRETE CONVECTION AND DAMAGING WINDS
FROM BOTH ISOLATED CLUSTERS AND A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE. THE THREAT
FOR TORNADOES IS COMPARABLY LOW, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOGETHER,
ESPECIALLY IN THE FORM OF BRIEF ROTATION DEVELOPING WITHIN A SQUALL
LINE.
THE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO CONCLUDE BY LATE
EVENING TUESDAY, BUT THE RAINFALL WILL JUST BE BEGINNING. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MEANDER
VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AS ITS
ATTENDANT SURFACE BOUNDARY LIKEWISE STALLS ACROSS THE REGION,
ESTABLISHING A FIREHOSE OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE AIMED AT THE
ARKLATEX THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO TAKE THE FORM OF CONTINUOUS RAINFALL, PER SE,
BUT FREQUENT ENOUGH IMPULSES RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AT
LEAST DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A VERY WET
FORECAST FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SET UP IS ALSO
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE ARKLATEX IS
INCLUDED IN AT LEAST LOWER-END RISK OUTLOOKS BEGINNING TOMORROW AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE GREATEST RISK CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED ON THURSDAY FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE MOST RECENT
ACCUMULATION FORECAST TOTALS SUGGEST AT LEAST 3 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE 5 TO 7 INCH RAIN.
BEAR IN MIND, THESE TOTALS WILL BE ACCUMULATED THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
REINFORCED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW, WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, BUT
THIS WET PATTERN LOOKS TO AT LEAST PUT A DENT IN THE WELL-ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS WILL SETTLE INTO
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S BY LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
THROUGHOUT.
/26/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM AROUND 19/06Z THROUGH
19/18Z. CEILINGS TO BECOME VFR THEREAFTER WITH VCTS CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS TXK AROUND 19/20Z WITH CONVECTION MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE I-20 TERMINALS AND APPROACHING LFK AROUND 19/23Z. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. /26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 91 71 84 / 10 70 70 80
MLU 75 92 71 86 / 10 40 80 80
DEQ 73 83 65 81 / 10 90 60 80
TXK 75 90 68 83 / 10 80 60 80
ELD 74 90 68 83 / 10 70 70 80
TYR 76 88 70 82 / 20 70 60 80
GGG 75 90 70 82 / 10 70 70 80
LFK 77 91 72 84 / 10 30 50 90
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...05
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