005
FXUS64 KSHV 192326
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
626 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ARKLATEX.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS, AND
A SPIN-UP TORNADO OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, RESULTING IN TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES.
- AS SOILS BECOME SATURATED FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME A CONCERN THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
AN INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS HOUR,
ALONG A BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OUT THE MAIN COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST AND
SOUTH TODAY, A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FURTHER ALONG THE FRONT'S SOUTHERN EXTENT, ADVANCING INTO
THE ARKLATEX THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRINCIPAL HAZARD, ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL NORTH. THE
THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS COMPARABLY LOW, THOUGH A BRIEF SPIN-UP IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALTOGETHER. FINALLY, TRAINING AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN
AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN ARKLATEX.
TODAY'S WAVE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RUN ITS COURSE BY LATE
THIS EVENING, DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS IT MAKES SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS, BUT THE RAINFALL WILL JUST BE BEGINNING, AS THE FRONT
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS SLOWS ITS PROGRESS AND BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY, STALLING NEAR OR ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
TREK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, TAPPING INTO THE FIREHOSE OF MOISTURE WHICH
WILL BE AIMED AT THE ARKLATEX THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. IT BEARS MENTIONING THAT THIS DOES NOT MEAN A WEEK'S WORTH
OF CONTINUOUS RAINFALL, PER SE, BUT WE DO EXPECT FREQUENT ENOUGH
IMPULSES TO RESULT IN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF THIS SET UP IS ALSO ELEVATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE ARKLATEX IS INCLUDED IN AT LEAST LOWER-END
RISK FLOOD OUTLOOKS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE MOST
RECENT ACCUMULATION FORECAST TOTALS SUGGEST AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE 5 TO 7 INCH
RANGE. BEAR IN MIND, THESE TOTALS WILL BE ACCUMULATED THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS, NOT IN A SINGLE EVENT, BUT AS SOILS
BECOME SATURATED WITH DAILY RAINFALL BY LATE THIS WEEK, IT WILL NOT
TAKE AS MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN TO RESULT IN FLOODING.
REINFORCED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW, WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE THIS WET PATTERN PUTS A DENT IN THE WELL-ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS WILL SETTLE INTO
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S BY LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
THROUGHOUT.
/26/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
LINGERING RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER TO QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS ALLOWING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS RESULTING IN MVFR
CEILINGS AREAWIDE. CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH 20/15Z WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF VCTS CONDITIONS ACROSS LFK. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT TO BECOME NORTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AREAWIDE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. /26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 69 84 68 81 / 70 50 50 90
MLU 70 85 69 84 / 80 60 70 90
DEQ 64 82 64 76 / 30 30 40 80
TXK 67 84 67 79 / 60 40 50 90
ELD 66 83 65 80 / 80 50 50 90
TYR 68 82 68 79 / 60 40 50 90
GGG 69 83 68 81 / 70 40 50 90
LFK 71 84 70 82 / 80 50 40 90
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...05
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