997
FXUS64 KSHV 210602
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
102 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- AS SOILS BECOME SATURATED FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME A
CONCERN.
- ALSO, AN ISOLATED STRONG THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
THE PASSAGE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION ALONG A PROMINENT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COOL FRONT, LEFT STABLE AND MORE
QUIETER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, WE SAW
SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CENTRAL LOUISIANA ZONES AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, AS IT HAS STALLED ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI. THAT RAIN HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED, BUT SHORT-TERM
PROGS ARE HINTING AT SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR ZONES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT IN
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. BUT, WITH THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
AREA, CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE, UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH WET
SOILS STILL IN PLACE, SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
REGION.
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE ESTABLISHED SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GENERATE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST ZONES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. WE ALSO EXPECT THE STALLED FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH OVER THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WHICH WILL ALSO BE A
FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TODAY, GENERALLY DUE TO THE PROLONGED LENGTH OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS WE MOVE INTO
NEXT WEEK, LONG-TERM PROGS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO CLOSE OFF AND MEANDER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT STALLING ACROSS EAST TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. WITH CONSECUTIVE DAYS AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS KEEPING THE RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE REGION. AND EVEN THOUGH NO
ORGANIZE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD, AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. /20/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
TRICKY TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD COMING UP AS WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING
SOME LOW VFR CEILINGS SEEING ACROSS SW AR INTO N LA WITH DEPARTING
AC ACROSS NE LA AND INCREASING CIRRUS FROM C TX. WE ARE ALSO SEEING
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG AS WELL ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE WHICH SHOULD
BECOME MODIFIED IF AND WHEN WE BEGIN TO SEE THESE IFR/LIFR OR VLIFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A MAJORITY OF PROGS SUGGEST. SO FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, TRENDED CEILINGS FROM VFR VARIETY TO LIFR
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS BUT SOME MUCH LOWER
VSBYS AT ELD AND TXK. AFTER SUNRISE, WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING VSBYS
BUT LIFR/IFR AND/OR MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. DID TRY TO BRING MOST CEILINGS UP TO AT LEAST
MVFR CATEGORIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE INCLUSION OF VCTS AS WE
ARE EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SOUTH OF
OUR AIRSPACE AND ADVANCE NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. KEPT TEMPO GROUPS FOR A 4HR WINDOW OF MUCH STRONGER
CONVECTIVE GUSTS AND LOWER CEILINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTMS AT EACH
TERMINAL. LOOK FOR ENE TO E WINDS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS. THOSE WINDS SHOULD VEER AROUND TO MORE
OF A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING AS WELL. WINDS WILL OF COURSE BE MUCH STRONGER AND GUSTY
NEAR TSRA.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
SOME EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 68 84 68 86 / 70 40 30 70
MLU 68 84 68 87 / 70 60 30 60
DEQ 63 81 63 83 / 70 50 40 60
TXK 66 83 66 86 / 70 40 30 60
ELD 64 82 65 86 / 70 60 30 60
TYR 67 84 68 84 / 70 30 30 70
GGG 67 84 68 85 / 70 40 30 70
LFK 68 86 70 85 / 60 40 30 90
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13
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