672
FXUS64 KSHV 212036
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
336 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIFTING N/NW INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE A BIT WHILE MOVING N.
- THE OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION, PRIMARILY ENHANCED BY HEATING.
- THE SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL SWING A FEW DIFFERENT SYSTEMS IN
OVER THE MIDSOUTH. THE DISTURBANCES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE WITH
EACH PASSING SYSTEM AND THE LAST ONE WILL SLOW & STALL SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
THE SEA BREEZE PUSH IS GENERALLY A LITTLE EARLY WITH SOME OF THE
CONVECTIVE LEADERS OF THE PACK LIFTING ACROSS I-20 AT THIS TIME
NEAR LONGVIEW AND MONROE. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LOW OUT SE OF
HOUSTON AND OVER THE GULF AND SPREADING ABUNDANT CIRRUS INLAND.
THIS CLOUD COVERAGE IS NO DOUBT LIMITING INSTABILITY AND KEEPING
THE MERCURY ON A SLOW CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR IS LOOKING
FAIRLY WELL AT INITIALIZING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
WEAKNESS OUT OVER THE GULF EXPECTED TO HELP TO LIFT IN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION INLAND BEFORE SUNSET. JUST A LITTLE GUSTY WIND NEAR
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED STRIKES ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD. NO CHANGES TO OUR GENERAL RISK FROM SPC AND THE WPC
MAINTAINS WITH THEIR 20Z UPDATE. AND WE CONTINUE WITH A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE WHICH MAY PICK UP LATER ON THIS EVENING AS WE
RAIN OUT ALONG OUR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WE ARE STILL HANGING TOO DRIER MID 60 DEW POINTS OVER THE NATURAL
STATE, WHILE ELSEWHERE NUMBERS ARE BUMPING INTO THE LOWER 70S
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 MOISTURE WISE. THE MUCH ADVERTISED PARADE
OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL SEE A BIGGER FLOAT ARRIVING THIS
WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER LOW 579DAM THAT WILL SETTLE OVER NE TEXAS
BY SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN, WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER GOOD ROUND OF
DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. AND THE GFS
SHOWS SOME LINGERING NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION ALSO MATERIALIZES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE HEART OF OUR FOUR-STATE AREA.
AS FAR OUR HOLIDAY PROPER IS CONCERNED, THIS UPPER LOW WILL HAVE
A DRY SIDE AND WET SIDE WITH FOCUS REMAINING OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
ALONG AND EAST OF I-49, WHILE PARTS OF TEXAS LOOK TO SEE A BIT
LESS COVERAGE LATE THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED
WELL IN THE WPC EROS FOR DAY 3 AND 4, SHIFTING THEIR SLIGHT RISK
AREAS ACROSS TX AND INTO LA FOR MEMORIAL DAY. OVERALL, OUR QPF
MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN WHAT WE SAW A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO, BUT
THE RISK REMAINS, AS RAIN RATES WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH SLOW
MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION AROUND THE STALLED UPPER LOW. AT LEAST WHEN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH WAS KEEPING MORE COVERAGE
AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, PARTS OF E TX WILL FILL IN ONCE AGAIN WITH
MORE QPF SIGNAL AS THE BAJA, DEEPER UPPER LOW IN THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TEXAS DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. AND LIKEWISE, THIS UPPER LOW IS ALSO NOW MODELED TO STALL
OVER N TX AND LINGER MUCH CONVECTION FOR OUR INTEREST TO PERSIST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MONTH. /24/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
FOR THE 21/18Z TAF PERIOD, MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO LARGELY DOMINATE
OUR AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TOWARD LOW VFR
STATUS OVER THE FEW HOURS. HSPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
SOME EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. /20/OWEVER, INCREASING
CONVECTION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAY HAMPER THOSE IMPROVING
CLOUD HEIGHTS SO HAVE HELD ONTO SOME LOWER CIGS WITH TEMPO TSRA AS
CONVECTION SHIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION SO
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THAT AS WELL WITH HIGHER TEMPO GUSTS WITH TSRA
DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE,
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS
CIGS BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BACK ONCE AGAIN. WILL ALSO WATCH
TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL, BUT LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES LOW VSBY REDUCTIONS IN THIS TAF CYCLE OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL. HOWEVER, THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
/24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 67 83 67 84 / 80 40 20 70
MLU 67 83 68 85 / 90 70 30 70
DEQ 63 80 61 81 / 90 40 40 60
TXK 66 82 65 84 / 90 40 40 60
ELD 64 81 64 83 / 90 50 30 60
TYR 66 84 67 83 / 80 30 30 80
GGG 66 84 67 84 / 80 30 30 70
LFK 67 85 68 84 / 60 40 20 80
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...19
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