033
FXUS64 KSHV 222045
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
345 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF I-20, WHERE POTENTIAL IS GREATEST.
- THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD RAINFALL INTO OUR FOUR-
STATE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY SUNDAY.
- THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES WITH THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE REST OF MAY AND INTO EARLY JUNE WITH DROUGHT RELIEF.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEFLY QUIET PERIOD UNFOLDING TO
START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE HRRR, GFS AND NAM ALL LOOK AT MORE
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING UNDER A SPOKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW NOW IN
THE MEMPHIS VICINTY. THE DRY SLOT IS OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY AND
EXTENDS INTO NE LA. SO JUST ENOUGH TURNING ALOFT TO DEVELOP SOME
LIFT THIS EVENING APART FROM THE SUN'S LACK OF INFLUENCE. OUR
SOUNDING AT NOON IS LARGELY UNCAPPED WITH STILL GOOD PWAT OVER AN
INCH AND HALF. SO WE WILL TAKE ALL WE CAN MUSTER RAINWISE WITH OUR
DROUGHT FINALLY UNDER REPAIR.
THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM ON APPROACH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER BAJA AND
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD MORE LIFT INTO OUR AIR SPACE IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON SATURDAY. SO WITH MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARRIVING AND
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN EVEN AHEAD OF IT'S
ARRIVAL, WE WILL BE IN FOR SOME SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND THUS
THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE FLOOD WATCH AND IT'S EXTENDED DURATION.
THIS AND THE FACT SOME PERSONS MAY NOT HAVE USUAL ACCESS TO
WEATHER INFORMATION WHILE ENJOYING THE GREAT OUTDOORS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. OUR NOON SOUNDING DIDN'T EVEN HAVE ANY 50KT FLAGS IN
DEEP SW FLOW FROM BOTTOM TO TOP WITH MOSTLY WINDS OF 20-35KT
ALOFT. THERE IS EVEN A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPRESSING
VERTICAL MOTIONS TODAY THAT WILL FILTER EASTWARD BY SUNSET. SO,
GET READY FOR MORE RAINFALL WITH STILL AN OPPORTUNITY TO GET BACK
TO AVERAGE THIS LATE SPRING. THE DROUGHT MONITOR MISSED THE BOAT
EARLIER THIS WEEK, BUT WILL NO DOUBT SEE MARKED IMPROVEMENT OVER
THIS LONG WEEKEND AND BE REASSESSED EARLY ON TUESDAY.
TODAY TURNED OUT NICE AND WARM, RIGHT AT AVERAGE HERE IN
SHREVEPORT WITH 86 SO FAR. A GOOD CU FIELD UNFOLDING MAY KEEP US
THERE, BUT THAT SW WIND IS ALWAYS GOOD FOR A BIT WARMER DAY THAN
EXPECTED. GOING FORWARD WITH SYSTEM NUMBER TWO, WE WILL SEE OUR
HIGHS EASE BACK A BIT WITH LESS SUN AND MORE CLOUDS. LOWS WILL
VERY SLOWLY EDGE TOWARD THE 70 DEGREE MARK BY MONDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE POSITIONED THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW A LITTLE MORE
TOWARD THE HEART OF OUR AREA COMPARED TO OVER NE TX THE FAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. OUR TOTAL QPF OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD IS FROM
NEAR 3 INCHES FOR I-30 TO A FEW SPOTS OVER OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
CO/PA WITH OVER 5 INCHES. THE WPC HAS TRIMMED US OUT THEIR DAY
ONE, BUT STILL LOOKING AT THE LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO FILTER IN
OVER OUR AREA AT DAYBREAK AND THROUGH SUNDAY. MEMORIAL DAY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY UNTIL THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW
ACTS AS A KICKER ON THE SOON TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PARKING
OVERHEAD LATE ON SATURDAY. AND STILL THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE BIG
CONCERN IS FOR LIGHTNING TO THOSE OUTSIDE. IF THUNDER ROARS, GO
INDOORS! AND THEN SECONDLY, THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH SLOWER
MOVEMENT. SO MAKE SURE AND HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WEATHER INFO
WHILE BOATING, FISHING AND CAMPING DURING THIS UNOFFICIAL START TO
THE SUMMER SEASON. /24/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
FOR THE 22/18Z TAF UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS,
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THESE SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT KELD AND KTXK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH OR VCTS AT
THIS TIME DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WE ARE SEEING A MIXTURE OF VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
SOME LIFR MIXED IN AT TIMES FOR A FEW TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY THAT COULD IMPACT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE SATURDAY NIGHT. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MONITOR FORECAST AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20 WITH A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT ALL
WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 67 84 68 80 / 40 60 80 70
MLU 67 86 68 81 / 40 80 90 90
DEQ 62 81 63 82 / 20 80 50 40
TXK 65 84 66 82 / 30 70 60 50
ELD 63 84 64 80 / 30 70 70 60
TYR 68 84 67 81 / 20 40 40 50
GGG 67 84 67 80 / 30 60 60 60
LFK 69 84 68 80 / 30 80 80 70
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR LAZ010-011-017>020-022.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...33
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