241
FXUS64 KSHV 222337
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
637 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF I-20, WHERE POTENTIAL IS GREATEST.
- THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD RAINFALL INTO OUR FOUR-
STATE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY SUNDAY.
- THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES WITH THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE REST OF MAY AND INTO EARLY JUNE WITH DROUGHT RELIEF.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEFLY QUIET PERIOD UNFOLDING TO
START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE HRRR, GFS AND NAM ALL LOOK AT MORE
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING UNDER A SPOKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW NOW IN
THE MEMPHIS VICINTY. THE DRY SLOT IS OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY AND
EXTENDS INTO NE LA. SO JUST ENOUGH TURNING ALOFT TO DEVELOP SOME
LIFT THIS EVENING APART FROM THE SUN'S LACK OF INFLUENCE. OUR
SOUNDING AT NOON IS LARGELY UNCAPPED WITH STILL GOOD PWAT OVER AN
INCH AND HALF. SO WE WILL TAKE ALL WE CAN MUSTER RAINWISE WITH OUR
DROUGHT FINALLY UNDER REPAIR.
THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM ON APPROACH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER BAJA AND
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD MORE LIFT INTO OUR AIR SPACE IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON SATURDAY. SO WITH MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARRIVING AND
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN EVEN AHEAD OF IT'S
ARRIVAL, WE WILL BE IN FOR SOME SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND THUS
THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE FLOOD WATCH AND IT'S EXTENDED DURATION.
THIS AND THE FACT SOME PERSONS MAY NOT HAVE USUAL ACCESS TO
WEATHER INFORMATION WHILE ENJOYING THE GREAT OUTDOORS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. OUR NOON SOUNDING DIDN'T EVEN HAVE ANY 50KT FLAGS IN
DEEP SW FLOW FROM BOTTOM TO TOP WITH MOSTLY WINDS OF 20-35KT
ALOFT. THERE IS EVEN A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPRESSING
VERTICAL MOTIONS TODAY THAT WILL FILTER EASTWARD BY SUNSET. SO,
GET READY FOR MORE RAINFALL WITH STILL AN OPPORTUNITY TO GET BACK
TO AVERAGE THIS LATE SPRING. THE DROUGHT MONITOR MISSED THE BOAT
EARLIER THIS WEEK, BUT WILL NO DOUBT SEE MARKED IMPROVEMENT OVER
THIS LONG WEEKEND AND BE REASSESSED EARLY ON TUESDAY.
TODAY TURNED OUT NICE AND WARM, RIGHT AT AVERAGE HERE IN
SHREVEPORT WITH 86 SO FAR. A GOOD CU FIELD UNFOLDING MAY KEEP US
THERE, BUT THAT SW WIND IS ALWAYS GOOD FOR A BIT WARMER DAY THAN
EXPECTED. GOING FORWARD WITH SYSTEM NUMBER TWO, WE WILL SEE OUR
HIGHS EASE BACK A BIT WITH LESS SUN AND MORE CLOUDS. LOWS WILL
VERY SLOWLY EDGE TOWARD THE 70 DEGREE MARK BY MONDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE POSITIONED THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW A LITTLE MORE
TOWARD THE HEART OF OUR AREA COMPARED TO OVER NE TX THE FAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. OUR TOTAL QPF OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD IS FROM
NEAR 3 INCHES FOR I-30 TO A FEW SPOTS OVER OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
CO/PA WITH OVER 5 INCHES. THE WPC HAS TRIMMED US OUT THEIR DAY
ONE, BUT STILL LOOKING AT THE LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO FILTER IN
OVER OUR AREA AT DAYBREAK AND THROUGH SUNDAY. MEMORIAL DAY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY UNTIL THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW
ACTS AS A KICKER ON THE SOON TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PARKING
OVERHEAD LATE ON SATURDAY. AND STILL THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE BIG
CONCERN IS FOR LIGHTNING TO THOSE OUTSIDE. IF THUNDER ROARS, GO
INDOORS! AND THEN SECONDLY, THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH SLOWER
MOVEMENT. SO MAKE SURE AND HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WEATHER INFO
WHILE BOATING, FISHING AND CAMPING DURING THIS UNOFFICIAL START TO
THE SUMMER SEASON. /24/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EVENING, LEAVING SCT-BKN VFR CONDITIONS/CEILINGS
PREVAILING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TOWARDS 23/12Z, CEILINGS
WILL LOWER QUICKLY TO LOW-END MVFR AND IFR, WITH POCKETS OF LIFR
ALSO POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AROUND
TERMINALS WHERE TSRA PASSED DURING THE PRIOR EVENING. FOG MAY
TEMPORARILY DROP VSBYS TO GENERALLY MVFR. A LINE OF STORMS MAY
THEN MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z, BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS AND VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LINE, IT HAS BEEN INCLUDED
IN THE 23/00Z TAF UPDATE GIVEN RECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH CEILINGS LIKELY TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR OR AT LEAST
HIGH-END MVFR. WINDS TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, POSSIBLY
FAVORING A MORE SE DIRECTION ON SATURDAY AROUND 5-6KT. EXPECT
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MONITOR FORECAST AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20 WITH A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT ALL
WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 67 84 68 80 / 40 60 80 70
MLU 67 86 68 81 / 40 80 90 90
DEQ 62 81 63 82 / 20 80 50 40
TXK 65 84 66 82 / 30 70 60 50
ELD 63 84 64 80 / 30 70 70 60
TYR 68 84 67 81 / 20 40 40 50
GGG 67 84 67 80 / 30 60 60 60
LFK 69 84 68 80 / 30 80 80 70
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ010-011-017>020-022.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...23
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