853
FXUS64 KSHV 230704
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
204 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A
FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF I-20.
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS A SERIES OF
UPPER TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE REGION.
- AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK WILL REMAIN DURING THIS WET PERIOD.
ALSO, AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT US RAIN ON
THURSDAY HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY EVENING ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR THE I-20
CORRIDOR. SOME OF THOSE STORMS WERE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS, AS WELL AS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DUE TO
THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT. THAT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED, BUT
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AT THIS HOUR ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA FROM REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION. SHORT-TERM PROGS CONTINUE
THIS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BEFORE A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVE
INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SHORT-
WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE ESTABLISHED SOUTHWEST FLOW UPPER
PATTERN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE BRINGING THE COMPLEX ACROSS OUR EAST
TEXAS ZONES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 AROUND DAYBREAK. BUT,
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS, ESPECIALLY SINCE WE HAVE SATURATED SOILS IN
PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF OUR EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA ZONES SOUTH OF I-20, BUT I
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO EXTEND IT NORTHWARD, AS THOSE
AREAS HAVE RECEIVED DECENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK, A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, RESULTING IN DAILY
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING, BUT
COULD BE EXTENDED THROUGH NEXT WEEK, AS THE ELEVATED FLOOD RISK IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZE SEVERE WEATHER WILL
STILL REMAIN LOW, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD. /20/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR, BUT WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW
CIGS BEGIN TO RETURN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MOST SITES
SHOULD COME DOWN TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY FOG CAN'T BE
RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE'S LESS CLOUD COVER AND
CALM WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE AS
SOON AS 23/12Z, BUT THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
MAKE EXACT LOCATIONS HARD TO PIN DOWN. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL THE LINE IS
ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE THIS LINE PUSHES THROUGH,
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR QUICKLY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
ALSO, AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 68 80 68 81 / 50 60 60 80
MLU 68 81 68 82 / 50 80 80 90
DEQ 63 82 64 80 / 40 40 30 60
TXK 66 83 67 81 / 40 40 40 70
ELD 65 81 65 79 / 50 60 70 90
TYR 68 81 67 81 / 40 40 20 60
GGG 68 80 67 81 / 40 50 50 70
LFK 68 80 68 83 / 50 60 50 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ010-011-017>020-022.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...57
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