144
FXUS64 KSHV 231747
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A
FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF I-20.
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS A SERIES OF
UPPER TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE REGION.
- AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK WILL REMAIN DURING THIS WET PERIOD.
ALSO, AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WE HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM NUMBER 241 UNTIL 6PM THIS EVENING. SO FAR WE HAVE
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER FOR LATE THIS MORNING
AND ADDED THE HEADLINE TO THE ZONES. /24/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT US RAIN ON
THURSDAY HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY EVENING ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR THE I-20
CORRIDOR. SOME OF THOSE STORMS WERE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS, AS WELL AS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DUE TO
THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT. THAT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED, BUT
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AT THIS HOUR ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA FROM REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION. SHORT-TERM PROGS CONTINUE
THIS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BEFORE A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVE
INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SHORT-
WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE ESTABLISHED SOUTHWEST FLOW UPPER
PATTERN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE BRINGING THE COMPLEX ACROSS OUR EAST
TEXAS ZONES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 AROUND DAYBREAK. BUT,
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS, ESPECIALLY SINCE WE HAVE SATURATED SOILS IN
PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF OUR EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA ZONES SOUTH OF I-20, BUT I
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO EXTEND IT NORTHWARD, AS THOSE
AREAS HAVE RECEIVED DECENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK, A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, RESULTING IN DAILY
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING, BUT
COULD BE EXTENDED THROUGH NEXT WEEK, AS THE ELEVATED FLOOD RISK IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZE SEVERE WEATHER WILL
STILL REMAIN LOW, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD. /20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
FOR THE 23/18Z TAF UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH MOST OF OUR LOUISIANA
ZONES THAT ARE GRADUALLY SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND. I HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OUT OF SOME OF THE TERMINALS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES,
ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT OUT NEAR WACO TEXAS
THAT COULD MOVE TOWARDS OUR REGION AND COULD REQUIRE US TO MAKE
SOME CHANGES. OTHERWISE, I MADE MENTION OF SOME BR FOR MOST
TERMINALS TONIGHT GIVEN THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN, THE MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW FAR THE VISIBILITY WILL DROP AND HOW LOW THE
CEILINGS WILL COME DOWN. I DO HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW TERMINALS DROPPING INTO LIFR CATEGORY. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION AND REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA NOW AND THOUGH 6PM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 68 80 68 81 / 30 40 50 70
MLU 68 80 67 82 / 40 60 80 80
DEQ 63 82 64 79 / 30 30 20 60
TXK 67 82 66 80 / 40 20 30 70
ELD 65 79 65 79 / 50 50 60 80
TYR 68 81 67 81 / 20 30 20 60
GGG 68 81 67 81 / 20 30 40 60
LFK 69 80 67 83 / 50 50 40 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ010-011-017>020-022.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...33
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