088
FXUS64 KSHV 240005 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
705 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE SOGGY HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE SEVERE EARLY PUSH THIS MORNING.
- THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS FOR NOW WITH MORE CONVECTION LIFTING
INLAND AND OUR SOON TO BE STATIONARY UPPER LOW ARRIVING SUNDAY.
- THE PARADE OF UPPER IMPULSES CONTINUES FOR MAY WITH A DECENT
COLD FRONT ARRIVING FOR A NICE LITTLE BREAK BY EARLY JUNE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY FROM LOWER 80S IN DEEP EAST
TX TO UPPER 60S AND FOG ALONG HWY 167 FROM RUSTON TO EL DORADO.
THE MORNING MCS IS LIFTING OVER NE LA AT THIS TIME AND ALL OF OUR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY. THE SUN IS
SHINNING OVER E TX AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS I-49 SOON WITH HIGHS
FROM UPPER 70S IN OUR FAR EAST TO MUGGY MID 80S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-49. THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING
DEVELOPMENT ON A SPOKE OF THE DEPARTING MCS FROM NEAR TEXARKANA TO
SHREVEPORT THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, JUST A FEW SPOTTY POP UPS
HERE AND THERE LATE DAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE HAVING A HARD TIME
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF CO/PA LATE TODAY.
OUR LOWS WILL REMAIN WITH A WIDE RANGE OF 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND THEN HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR A
PLEASANT SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE MORE CONVECTION ARRIVING OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE GFS AND NAM IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGH CHANCE TO OCCASIONAL LIKELY COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WPC FADES THEIR MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
EASTWARD AND THEN BACK WEST AGAIN FOR MEMORIAL DAY, BUT THE
SLIGHT RISK IS NOW OVER COASTAL TX/LA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF MS, SO FOR NOW KEEPING OUT OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY. THE SPC
CONTINUES A GENERAL RISK WHICH INDICATES DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY TO NEAR 40 MPH FROM ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR THE BALANCE OF
OUR HOLIDAY. OF COURSE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
SO, KEEP IN MIND WHILE ENJOYING THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND THIS
UNOFFICIAL START TO SUMMER, IF THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS.
THE SHORT WORK WEEK WILL CONTINUE WITH CONVECTION FOR ALL OF OUR
FOUR-STATE AREA AS THE ONE UPPER LOW STALLS ON SUNDAY, AND
LINGERS TOWARD MIDWEEK. JUST AS THE KICKER ARRIVES IN THE SW FLOW
TO EXPAND COVERAGE AGAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. SO MORE NEEDED RAINFALL
REMAINS IN THE OFFING WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE WET PATTERN LIKELY
TO FINISH OUT THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A BACK DOOR
FRONT ARRIVING DOWN THE MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME NEXT
WEEKEND. AND THAT SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE WET PATTERN BRIEFLY
AS WE TURN THE PAGE OF THE CALENDAR. AND PERHAPS GET OUT OF MAY
WITH LITTLE IF ANY 90 DEGREES READINGS AS THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR A BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE RANGE. THE CPC
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CARRIES THIS SAME PATTERN OVER BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
/24/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE REGION TO THE
E, WHILE ALSO EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER SE TX/S LA THROUGH THE
EVENING, EXTENSIVE ELEVATED CIGS WITH PERSISTENT CU SHOULD REMAIN
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF -RA WITH
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LFK THROUGH THE
EVENING, BEFORE THE CIGS EVENTUALLY LOWER AFTER 09Z. MVFR CIGS
ALSO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR, AND SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL, BEFORE EVENTUALLY
LOWERING/BECOMING IFR BY OR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER EXTREME SE OK/EXTREME NE TX THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE INTO SW AR THIS EVENING. HAVE TEMPOED IN
SHRA MENTION FOR TXK ONLY FOR NOW, AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED SHOULD
THUNDER DEVELOP OR THEY DEVELOP FARTHER S AND E. THE OVERALL
TREND SHOULD BE A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN CONVECTION LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CIGS AND
REDUCED VSBYS IN PATCHY FG BY DAYBREAK, WHICH SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING
BY MID-MORNING. WHILE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CU CIGS, WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SRN AR/N LA/DEEP E TX. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE
PRECLUDES VCTS MENTION ATTM. LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL NNW AROUND
5KTS BY LATE MORNING, EXCEPT LIGHT S AT MLU. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 68 80 68 81 / 30 40 50 70
MLU 68 80 67 82 / 40 60 80 80
DEQ 63 82 64 79 / 30 30 20 60
TXK 67 82 66 80 / 30 30 30 70
ELD 65 79 65 79 / 40 50 60 80
TYR 68 81 67 81 / 30 30 20 50
GGG 68 81 67 81 / 30 30 40 60
LFK 69 80 67 83 / 50 40 40 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ010-011-017>020-022.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15
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