433
FXUS64 KSJT 171957
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
157 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
- WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
CLASSIC LOW INSTABILITY BUT HIGH SHEAR EVENT UPCOMING FOR WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH MAINLY LIGHT
TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND SOUTH PLAINS, JUST CLIPPING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS AREA
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING HOURS, WITH POP CHANCES GOING UP INTO
TONIGHT. ALOFT, POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN EJECT INTO KANSAS BY NOON MONDAY. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH 850 MB JET HITTING 50+ KNOTS, NEAR 70 KTS
AT 700 MB, AND 500 MB NEAR 100 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT MOVING ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ON THE OTHER HAND, INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES
WILL BE WEAK, WITH CAPE VALUES REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE. THUS, HAIL THREAT WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED. WIND
THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE, WITH ANY DOWNDRAFTS FROM
THESE STORMS LIKELY TO PULL DOWN SOME OF THESE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BIGGEST THREAT AREA MAY BE ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY WHERE A LITTLE MORE COHERENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
AREA.
STRONG SHEAR PROFILES (0-1K SRH OF 250-400) MEANS THE TORNADO
THREAT IS NOT ZERO EITHER, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW QLCS
TYPE SPIN-UPS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THE MAIN THREAT AREA MAY
BE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW WHERE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE BACKED MORE THAN AREAS FARTHER
SOUTH.
ONE LAST NOTE, ONCE THE LINE GETS COMPLETELY DEVELOPED (AND THIS
MAY NOT BE UNTIL MIDNIGHT) STORMS WILL BE KICKING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA VERY FAST. ENTIRE LINE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST AS FAST AS
40+ MPH, WITH THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS EVEN A LITTLE FASTER. FAST
MOVEMENT AND OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD WILL MEAN THAT THE PUBLIC MAY
NEED TO REACT TO ANY WARNINGS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THEY MIGHT
NORMALLY DO, SINCE THE WEATHER MAY APPEAR FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL
RIGHT BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES.
FINALLY, WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS FOR NOW.
MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONCHO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY, WHERE SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING BEFORE EVEN THE
MAIN SQUALL LINE MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND GIVEN THAT SOILS ARE STILL DECENTLY SATURATED FROM
THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL 3 WEEKS AGO, THE THREAT REMAINS IN PLACE.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS AREAS THAT MAY SEE ONLY THE SQUALL
LINE, THREAT IS LIKELY SMALLER JUST DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF
THE LINE ITSELF.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MORNING IN OUR EASTERN MOST COUNTIES AS THE FRONT PUSHES OUT TO OUR
EAST. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. STRONG
WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE (>70% CHANCE) THAT PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON, WEAKENING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH BY SUNSET.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MORE
NORTHERLY, BRINGING COLD, DRY AIR INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AS A
RESULT, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO DROP AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY AND LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. LOWS LOOK TO STAY RIGHT AROUND
OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR OUR CWA, BUT A FEW ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE
THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL VERY GRADUALLY
WARM AFTER WEDNESDAY, PUTTING HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AFTER
THE RAIN MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AT THE MOMENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS,
ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END VFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN TO AREAS WEST OF SAN ANGELO
AND ABILENE, ALTHOUGH HAVING ONLY LIMITED EFFECT ON TERMINALS AT
THIS TIME.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WILL SEE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL LOOKS A DEVELOPING QLCS
SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP AND SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH HIGH WINDS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN.
ONCE THE LINE PASSES THE TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING,
WINDS SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS LIKELY ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND MAYBE ABOVE 40 KNOTS FOR KSJT AND KABI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 54 69 48 69 / 100 20 0 0
SAN ANGELO 52 70 45 71 / 90 0 0 0
JUNCTION 54 72 45 76 / 90 30 0 0
BROWNWOOD 57 70 46 72 / 100 60 0 0
SWEETWATER 52 69 47 69 / 100 0 0 0
OZONA 51 70 45 71 / 90 0 0 0
BRADY 57 70 49 72 / 90 40 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
CALLAHAN-COKE-FISHER-HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-
TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-NOLAN-
RUNNELS-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...07
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